Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1e8d75effc188cd4d224ba342d90598255f383d886f567fed6a288e84b53bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd034…78a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,099$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.79 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 74c | 999.67$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 79c | 662.58$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 28c | 411.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 28c | 398.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…9321backed No | 78c | 306.22$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 75c | 288.15$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 5c | 239.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 218.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 185.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 26c | 151.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 148.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 26c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 129.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 30c | 121.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 27c | 98.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 89.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 74.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…f533backed No | 74c | 69.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 73c | 64.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 22c | 57.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 78c | 56.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 28c | 54.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 21c | 52.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 46.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 77c | 42.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked No | 78c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed No | 78c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…0a26backed No | 78c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…16bfbacked No | 79c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 80c | 13.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.