Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ded982488297731ef304289f93276c6b84b13522e27698e0a04e2da1b6b4c18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 4c | 2,682$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 47c | 2,510$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.89 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 28c | 1,721$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 38c | 1,446$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 21c | 1,373$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 1,284$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 3c | 1,271$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed No | 70c | 1,146$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 1,115$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.45 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 32c | 1,101$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.32 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 1,063$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 24c | 1,031$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 837.3$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 69c | 664.01$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 37c | 611.79$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.35 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 17c | 597.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 67c | 545.29$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.13 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 544.81$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 67c | 524.79$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.67 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 27c | 505.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.88 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 504.33$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 50c | 445.07$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.26 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 23c | 425.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 28c | 415.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 405.49$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 80c | 400.07$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.66 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 75c | 372.88$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 361.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 60c | 312.62$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 61c | 283.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 18c | 251.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.28 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 239.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 73c | 232.65$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 47c | 218.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 37c | 214.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 208.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 16c | 206.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 204.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 202.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 199.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 197.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.69 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 195.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 184.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 53c | 182.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 41c | 179.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 171.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 19c | 159.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 47c | 148.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 146.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 38c | 140.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 79c | 139.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 123.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 121.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 120.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 119.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 57c | 115.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 114.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…8bd5backed Yes | 52c | 110.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…7f85backed Yes | 47c | 107.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 106.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 103.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 67c | 102.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 102.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 38c | 100.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 42c | 99.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 97.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 49c | 94.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…838ebacked No | 52c | 85.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 17c | 79.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 79c | 73.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 73.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 69.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 69.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 66.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…62a2backed Yes | 38c | 65.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 63.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 63.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 58c | 63.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 40c | 62.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed Yes | 77c | 61.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 60.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 60.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 47c | 57.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.