Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4cc9d50e58d86eec776a6844f5e8aedbe02add47407d3454aa8a080e764539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 3,578$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 2,385$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 1,492$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.47 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 71c | 1,211$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.64 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 982.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 62c | 877.12$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.04 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 816.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 678.7$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 664.88$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 69c | 604.34$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.51 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 40c | 496.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.38 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Yes | 75c | 460.71$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 29c | 444.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 5c | 427.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 420.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 400$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 57c | 371.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 335.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 73c | 333.06$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 309.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 61c | 302.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 70c | 302.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 297.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 35c | 288.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.14 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Yes | 68c | 286.18$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 28c | 283.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 36c | 275.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 15c | 268.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 45c | 259.08$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 234.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 231.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 63c | 224.05$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 50c | 218.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 15c | 211.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Yes | 77c | 206.28$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 205.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 50c | 203.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 31c | 200.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.12 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 198.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed No | 10c | 190.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…6ff7backed Yes | 48c | 189.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 57c | 188.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 182$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 54c | 177.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 76c | 172.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 170$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed No | 54c | 166.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked No | 13c | 163.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 163$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 161.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 31c | 160.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 39c | 160.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 26c | 158.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 145.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 75c | 143.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 140.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked No | 71c | 140.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 136.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 32c | 136.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 135.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 134.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 28c | 127.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 126.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 36c | 120.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 120.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 119$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 41c | 118.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 117.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 49c | 115.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed No | 24c | 111.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 110.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 55c | 108.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 41c | 103.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 102.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 41c | 101.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…798dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…c3b5backed Yes | 60c | 97.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 51c | 95.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 63c | 94.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e0…22aabacked Yes | 57c | 94.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Yes | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 62c | 90.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 34c | 87.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 67c | 87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…a3d2backed Yes | 30c | 86.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 86.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 58c | 85.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 58c | 84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 39c | 82.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 82.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 36c | 81.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 80c | 79.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 61c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.