Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b84f7efc180cd418c2cd0bf9456d3bba9c7acd470ee898f6d2baf7e1ffadd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,558$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,946$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,202$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,596$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 1,072$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.23 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 21c | 769.08$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 9c | 707.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 11c | 659.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 549.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 430.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked Yes | 7c | 410.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 7c | 393.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…aa2abacked No | 77c | 315.09$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 292.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 5c | 253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 242.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 21c | 235.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 18c | 210.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 25c | 202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 169.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 22c | 143.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…5c4abacked Yes | 14c | 140.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 131.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 130.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 26c | 119.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 115.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 114.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…7518backed Yes | 18c | 108.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 11c | 105.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 104.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 102.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…798dbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 17c | 99.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 84.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 22c | 79.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 16c | 72.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 68.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 76c | 65.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…a510backed No | 78c | 64.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 77c | 62.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 23c | 57.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…a3d2backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 47.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed No | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 76c | 35.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 76c | 35.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 35.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 80c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed No | 75c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed No | 76c | 28.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 79c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…717bbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 77cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…ef1ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…229abacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.