TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Eagles vs. Commanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eaglesof Eagles, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,396,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,657,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,396,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Commanders25c2,260,790$564,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564,831.8411145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Eagles74c550,986$409,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,245.1530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Eagles75c329,000$246,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,250.0727454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0bc…af98backed Eagles75c265,555$199,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,399.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Eagles75c250,000$187,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,5009359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Commanders25c221,063$54,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,313.7716545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Commanders24c211,313$51,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,212.3217454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Eagles75c202,261$151,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,565.124250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Eagles75c197,709$148,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,427.354955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Commanders10c128,272$13,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,415.2716955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Commanders7c122,871$8,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,119.6910026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Eagles72c121,530$87,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,650.693070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Eagles75c120,000$90,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c0f…7b84backed Eagles76c102,103$77,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,505.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Commanders24c90,000$21,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,899.9914342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Eagles69c87,549$60,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,440.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Commanders9c85,185$7,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,996.3220026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Eagles76c74,587$56,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,023.9819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Commanders31c66,554$20,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,655.7386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed Commanders26c57,487$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Eagles75c50,000$37,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,50013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Eagles60c44,444$26,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,777.611168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Commanders24c41,968$10,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,072.215431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Eagles75c40,400$30,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1006764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Commanders24c40,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Eagles76c35,881$27,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,735.31,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Eagles76c35,054$26,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,412.9521254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Eagles75c34,902$26,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,695.5219235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles76c34,757$26,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,371.6173651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7671…7244backed Eagles75c33,322$24,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,330.423562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Commanders23c31,071$7,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,146.2612144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Commanders31c30,534$9,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,465.5414349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Eagles75c28,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00011544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Commanders29c22,852$6,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,533.5675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Commanders20c22,000$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.933351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Eagles75c20,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0007255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Commanders3c20,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Eagles75c19,895$14,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,942.0818156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Eagles72c19,889$14,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,476.7327644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Eagles71c18,258$13,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,218.3423244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Eagles75c17,678$13,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,419.547348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Eagles78c17,098$13,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,729.2611643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Eagles75c17,063$12,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,200.054362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9df…249ebacked Commanders29c17,013$5,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Commanders27c16,842$4,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,554.141741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x81ea…dd14backed Eagles77c16,497$12,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,794.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Eagles72c16,344$11,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,587.1150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Eagles67c16,000$10,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3204264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Eagles75c15,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Commanders25c13,720$3,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,453.617248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles75c13,500$10,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,375.0183147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Eagles75c13,333$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.3410144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Commanders25c13,039$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.7339447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Eagles74c12,754$9,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,311.6864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Eagles75c12,197$9,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.3530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Eagles75c11,585$8,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,896.1912744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Eagles76c11,562$8,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.1814154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Eagles74c11,254$8,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Commanders11c11,092$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.571225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Eagles75c10,594$7,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.422853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Eagles75c10,490$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,640.861936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f73…f55dbacked Eagles77c10,442$8,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Eagles75c10,320$7,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.983953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Eagles74c10,120$7,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6125356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Eagles75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Commanders0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Commanders24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4009442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Eagles69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8684…57cbbacked Commanders25c9,970$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Eagles75c8,794$6,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.7210650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Eagles70c8,685$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Eagles75c8,646$6,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Commanders14c8,574$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.211361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Commanders25c8,500$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.974436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Commanders2c7,426$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.261486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Eagles75c7,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7201346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Eagles80c6,993$5,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.544555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Eagles72c6,755$4,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.3753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Eagles75c6,685$5,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.348461.9%52 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Eagles76c6,579$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.957147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafda…011bbacked Eagles76c6,571$4,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Eagles70c6,164$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.729853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Eagles79c6,156$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.835236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Eagles74c6,118$4,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.7560049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Eagles76c6,000$4,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Commanders24c5,800$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.994544.4%20 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Commanders1c5,711$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.89980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Commanders39c5,691$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.393847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b6…09e2backed Eagles73c5,525$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.82334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-41%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Eagles73c5,000$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,33036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Commanders25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Eagles73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3502948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Commanders3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Eagles76c4,671$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.055261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Eagles78c4,486$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.0922349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Eagles76c4,444$3,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.981,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Eagles71c4,254$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.9214763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Commanders5c4,016$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Eagles75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Commanders28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12016036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.