NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d402df772ab0e3bddfa849ab0d84f8c0a1b9f7cc95cb7566e244ebe3397f772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Eagles, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d2…cc46backed Eagles | 54c | 6,770$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders | 47c | 6,019$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.66 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 38c | 2,449$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.7 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Eagles | 62c | 967.74$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.74 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 47c | 863.4$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.24 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Eagles | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 46c | 507.59$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Commanders | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Eagles | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Eagles | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Commanders | 41c | 338.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…bf6ebacked Eagles | 51c | 290.2$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…847bbacked Eagles | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Commanders | 41c | 284.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…ab75backed Eagles | 61c | 269.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Eagles | 59c | 244.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Eagles | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Eagles | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Commanders | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Eagles | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Eagles | 46c | 108.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Eagles | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Commanders | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…c942backed Eagles | 61c | 98.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Commanders | 39c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Eagles | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Eagles | 62c | 64.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…eadcbacked Eagles | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Commanders | 41c | 62.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +12.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Commanders | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…4450backed Eagles | 62c | 59.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Commanders | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Commanders | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Commanders | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed Eagles | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…b954backed Eagles | 60c | 33.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Eagles | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Eagles | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Eagles | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Eagles | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Eagles | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…a162backed Eagles | 61c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Eagles | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Eagles vs. CommandersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-5.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.