NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131ef2f5b7fc06fe251378185a71814285c3a8b21bfdc59becda22f1f17db037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 55c | 191$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 40c | 130.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 56c | 118$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 40c | 114$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a76…4d7cbacked Over | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 39c | 84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…7ca5backed Over | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Eagles vs. CommandersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-5.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.