NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b1dda50e85901eb75c1419da552f5e6d0e7e41730c88f482d41fcfd2e4d100d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Eagles, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 41c | 1,046$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.29 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Eagles | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Commanders | 41c | 835.88$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.71 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Eagles | 59c | 793.93$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Commanders | 41c | 708.34$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.42 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Commanders | 44c | 677.14$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.99 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Eagles | 56c | 595$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Eagles | 59c | 593.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Commanders | 55c | 512.61$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.94 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Eagles | 60c | 502.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eagles | 45c | 501.38$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.76 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Commanders | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Commanders | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Eagles | 59c | 411.73$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Eagles | 59c | 201.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Eagles | 55c | 182.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Eagles | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Commanders | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Commanders | 42c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Commanders | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Commanders | 46c | 95.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Eagles | 53c | 89.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Commanders | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Eagles | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Commanders | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Commanders | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Eagles | 54c | 64.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…4024backed Eagles | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Commanders | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Commanders | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Eagles | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Eagles | 44c | 34.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf4…348dbacked Eagles | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Commanders | 41c | 32.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Eagles | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Eagles | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Eagles | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Eagles | 46c | 28.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Eagles | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad4…3630backed Eagles | 55c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Eagles | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Eagles | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Eagles | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Eagles | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Eagles | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Eagles | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Eagles vs. CommandersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.