NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x387eaf0baf977f755baafea14159bcd37033f23cd39fb87e916814d9af127b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Eagles, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24e7…70b9backed Eagles | 70c | 1,176$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 30c | 787.38$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.17 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…67dfbacked Commanders | 33c | 299.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Commanders | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Commanders | 34c | 156.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Commanders | 33c | 152$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Commanders | 32c | 111$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Eagles | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Commanders | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Commanders | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…c6d8backed Eagles | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Commanders | 32c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Commanders | 32c | 67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…d3dcbacked Eagles | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…bd55backed Eagles | 67c | 55.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa018…a27abacked Eagles | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Commanders | 31c | 43.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Commanders | 32c | 42.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Eagles | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Eagles | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Eagles | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…b217backed Eagles | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Eagles | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Eagles | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Eagles | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Eagles | 64c | 25.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Eagles | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Eagles | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Eagles | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Eagles | 68c | 22.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Eagles | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Eagles | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Eagles | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Eagles | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Eagles | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Eagles | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Eagles | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Eagles | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Eagles | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Eagles | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Eagles | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Eagles | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Eagles vs. CommandersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-5.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.