NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd380f301da6724362d719c97b5e42b627bd07a1b318a156cedd7a1edef214a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 47c | 42,050$19,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,201.44 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 26,515$13,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,932.34 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 48c | 20,833$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,833.33 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 8,638$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664.65 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Under | 53c | 8,018$4,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,249.36 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.32 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 3,778$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.3 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 47c | 2,668$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.07 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 2,634$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.5 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 2,163$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.02 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 2,014$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.56 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 1,239$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Over | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 999.98$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 859.2$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.36 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 54c | 653.7$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…8874backed Over | 46c | 608.74$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 51c | 554.59$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.84 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…db8bbacked Over | 50c | 395$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…08c0backed Under | 51c | 395$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 46c | 391.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.3 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…f5a6backed Over | 51c | 385$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…92cebacked Under | 51c | 385$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 39c | 180.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…5058backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 53c | 92.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 51c | 71.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Over | 49c | 50.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Under | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Over | 49c | 44.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 50c | 41.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Over | 48c | 41.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Over | 47c | 38.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7f…0b18backed Over | 50c | 38.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…b954backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…ff81backed Over | 48c | 22.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Eagles vs. CommandersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-5.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.