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NFL · resolved market

1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Commandersof Eagles, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf4dc…d394backed Commanders48c225$108 inWon+$1172564%16 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Eagles40c100$40 inLost-$4013165.6%86 W · 45 L+17.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Commanders60c100$60 inWon+$4015144.4%67 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Commanders48c91$44 inWon+$47.321450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Commanders48c67$32 inWon+$34.841637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Commanders48c62$30 inWon+$32.241758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Commanders48c53.37$26 inWon+$27.751758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Commanders48c49$24 inWon+$25.482157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Commanders48c41$20 inWon+$21.321838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Commanders48c41$20 inWon+$21.321947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Eagles52c40$21 inLost-$20.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Eagles52c40$21 inLost-$20.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Eagles52c37$19 inLost-$19.241050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Eagles52c37$19 inLost-$19.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Eagles52c37$19 inLost-$19.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc39b…5754backed Eagles52c36$19 inLost-$18.72825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-51.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd411…e342backed Eagles52c35$18 inLost-$18.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick49cpaid-73.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd512…91eebacked Eagles52c28$15 inLost-$14.56650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d82dbacked Eagles52c23$12 inLost-$11.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Eagles52c22$11 inLost-$11.441258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb385…c1a4backed Eagles52c21$11 inLost-$10.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…655ebacked Eagles52c20$10 inLost-$10.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Eagles52c20$10 inLost-$10.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.