TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbecd…9df4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
224
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST14347.6%68 W · 75 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 143 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Big Game: 'Seahawks Revenge' Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Big Game: 'Deja Vu' Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$325.99
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+78.6%+$153.21
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$49.34
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+108.3%+$108.33
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$114
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$103.38
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+112.8%+$112.77
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$170
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+354.5%+$418.36
Panthers vs. Buccaneersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Eagles vs. Billsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+92.3%+$92.31
Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Steelers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+194.1%+$97.06
Texans vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+150%+$75
Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 143 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT3748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.3
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$160.29
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$86.18
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.82
Suns vs. Hawksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$195
Heat vs. Trail Blazersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+408.9%+$204.47
Nuggets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+163.2%+$81.58
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$13.75
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+185.7%+$92.86
Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinebacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinebacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+67.3%+$101
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+122.2%+$61.11
Grizzlies vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+100%+$75
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
East Carolina Pirates vs. North Texas Mean Greenbacked East Carolina Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+170.3%+$149.94
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Lipscomb Bisons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+170.5%+$42.63
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+78.6%+$39.29
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elche CF win on 2026-01-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$112
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.