Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fec9500ba1910ac09071ec04ec71c6b178d43b9362b61e1948151687bfc0602

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $71,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,206 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	26c	10,397$2,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,657.02	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	13c	7,146$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.48	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Over	77c	3,920$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920.14	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	69cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	13c	3,573$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.31	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	55c	2,511$1,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,128.42	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed Over	45c	2,000$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,100	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Under	15c	1,740$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261	192	39.1%75 W · 117 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over	16c	1,703$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,430.19	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	1,663$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.45	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	13c	1,500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31f0…cbf9backed Under	78c	1,467$1,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.08	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	79cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	70c	1,130$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.9	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2969…6d76backed Under	23c	869.57$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Under	79c	796.42$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.1	252	25%63 W · 189 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5995…53b3backed Over	77c	727.22$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.26	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	74cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Under	14c	694.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	174	28.2%49 W · 125 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Under	18c	559.37$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.61	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Over	63c	558$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.46	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	20c	517.72$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.9	1,923	42.4%815 W · 1,108 L	-42.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under	39c	512.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Under	20c	500.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.05	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	72c	480.96$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.67	306	45.8%140 W · 166 L	-11.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Over	67c	433.51$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.06	290	44.8%130 W · 160 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	69c	349.28$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.28	171	61.4%105 W · 66 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Under	18c	330.57$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	25c	320$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	167	31.7%53 W · 114 L	-18.5wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6dd…3139backed Over	55c	292.73$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.73	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb5…d941backed Over	72c	220$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.5	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	181	24.9%45 W · 136 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1df8…475cbacked Over	69c	200$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.3wins	+0.20per pick	57cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2b6…032cbacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c22…70a0backed Under	16c	187.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Under	76c	178.91$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.86	83	65.1%54 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	69cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x227b…e40fbacked Under	16c	154.38$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecd…9df4backed Under	17c	148.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under	22c	142.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.33	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed Over	76c	132$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.68	102	58.8%60 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over	19c	131.58$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.58	66	66.7%44 W · 22 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde8…15a1backed Over	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	65cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Over	24c	126$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.76	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Under	14c	121$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	40c	102.05$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.02	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	81	59.3%48 W · 33 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	66cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	20c	100$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	265	48.3%128 W · 137 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d6e…e9e3backed Over	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee8f…9f44backed Over	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over	43c	99.99$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.62	328	22.3%73 W · 255 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over	55c	99.63$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.63	66	47%31 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	54c	98.78$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.12	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	13c	98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.9wins	-0.29per pick	59cpaid	-57%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58e4…d654backed Over	65c	90.89$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over	47c	86.15$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.35	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	68c	80.88$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.88	208	64.9%135 W · 73 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Under	16c	77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-8.5wins	-0.17per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Over	78c	76.92$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.92	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	22c	75.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	290	41.7%121 W · 169 L	-9.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Over	61c	75$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.25	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa236…73f6backed Under	67c	74.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	20c	73$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.48	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8499…fc82backed Over	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcb…1879backed Over	60c	70$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e7…6031backed Over	35c	67.29$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.98	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+3.8wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Under	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	360	36.1%130 W · 230 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc6…a1c4backed Over	68c	58.81$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	38c	55.65$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	33c	53$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	584	45.9%268 W · 316 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	53c	50.94$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	357	43.1%154 W · 203 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Over	62c	45.2$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.18	114	60.5%69 W · 45 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cc…f83abacked Under	40c	45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Over	68c	43.51$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Over	50c	40.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.01	134	50.7%68 W · 66 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x450f…9479backed Over	78c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	60c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	148	45.9%68 W · 80 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c0…dfd2backed Over	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca12…1cc0backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.42per pick	24cpaid	+442.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Over	80c	35.87$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.17	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46d…87d9backed Over	58c	30.93$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over	54c	27.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.99	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	+9.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Over	75c	26.54$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.54	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	70cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc29…9875backed Over	75c	25.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.33	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aca…4e54backed Over	50c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Under	60c	24.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbc…1cb5backed Under	55c	22.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e60…18dcbacked Over	64c	21.91$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0633…355abacked Over	67c	21.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.16	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b2…90c1backed Over	59c	20.37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	241	58.1%140 W · 101 L	+34.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3f3c…e863backed Over	74c	18.74$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.94	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5this page
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event