Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ac7897996411dc290ff38e7fd4e4eddd298b10c579dac31195d48fcebba315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf957…d5a6backed Over | 17c | 2,994$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 2,307$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.47 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Under | 71c | 1,219$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 71c | 1,149$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Under | 70c | 1,075$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.43 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Under | 71c | 599.65$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Under | 77c | 545$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 80c | 500$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 335.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 78c | 273.4$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Under | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 68c | 116.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 116.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…74dcbacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…1e85backed Under | 78c | 98.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Over | 19c | 76.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 29c | 70.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Over | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 70c | 56.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 28c | 47.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4396backed Under | 77c | 44.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…b587backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…357dbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…0da8backed Under | 75c | 24.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Under | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Under | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…85a1backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…5896backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Under | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Under | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.