NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332f41ffe9c785e9f2d88c7da2d809937545c791225d811005c22f0e2eba2d76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 51c | 161,768$82,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,500.46 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 113,253$55,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,759.05 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 66,428$32,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,878.14 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Heat | 51c | 51,790$26,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,570.91 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Heat | 51c | 25,645$13,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,079.19 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 10,098$4,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,150.1 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 8,933$4,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 51c | 8,500$4,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,335 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.27 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.27 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 7,437$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,867.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 5,510$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.2 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 5,241$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…88c9backed Heat | 52c | 4,454$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 3,705$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Heat | 53c | 3,234$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.92 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 2,784$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.06 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 2,202$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.02 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.86 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 2,017$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Heat | 51c | 1,598$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.75 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Heat | 52c | 1,035$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.87 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Heat | 52c | 1,000$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 880$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.8 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Heat | 53c | 625$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.25 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Heat | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Heat | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Heat | 52c | 375$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 51c | 315.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.86 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 310.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Heat | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 299$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Heat | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Heat | 16c | 199.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Heat | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Heat | 54c | 192.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 178.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 169.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…eaf6backed Heat | 53c | 141.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 112.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 100.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Heat | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Heat | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…c6f4backed Heat | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Heat | 20c | 93.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 89.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Heat | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…483dbacked Heat | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed Heat | 52c | 60.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…b6d1backed Heat | 52c | 58.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Trail Blazers | 42c | 49.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Heat | 52c | 39.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Heat | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…1e0cbacked Heat | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 26.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…0fa8backed Heat | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Heat | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)this page
- Heat vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.