NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023f4d04f2e85895ccc219200be824777f6e0a5f17bc0f95ce0deedce2904889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9723…77d8backed Under | 52c | 1,343$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,272$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 857.55$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.5 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 53c | 801.89$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 413.9$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 53c | 263.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 101.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…d612backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 39.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 53c | 37.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…6555backed Under | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…441cbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Under | 53c | 21.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5this page
- Heat vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.