NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5433c8b3fa2081f046c66076775854158291101c204c98d4d6c9a938019f1e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Over | 42c | 120,000$50,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,400 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 58c | 96,507$55,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,532.81 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 58c | 20,000$11,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Under | 53c | 11,953$6,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.06 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,741$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 5,259$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.74 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 52c | 3,894$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.31 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 3,712$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.76 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 59c | 2,966$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.06 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 2,584$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 47c | 909$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.23 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 547.64$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…63d5backed Under | 7c | 500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 22c | 411.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.15 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 399$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 37c | 297.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.12 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 43c | 229.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 213$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 58c | 192$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 47c | 191.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 180.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 46c | 154.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 56c | 154.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 140.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 138.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 47c | 117.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…d3e2backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 96.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 65c | 95.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Under | 57c | 59.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 243 | 63.8%155 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Under | 61c | 49.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Under | 61c | 48.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -10.0wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 47c | 29.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Under | 54c | 28.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…035cbacked Under | 56c | 26.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 47c | 23.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5this page
- Heat vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.