TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c1c…9b07

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
125
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 58 out of 100; worst Tennis at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST4949%24 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30.8
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: O/U 150.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Spread: Florida Gators (-6.5)backed Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+122.2%+$110
Spread: California Baptist Lancers (-9.5)backed California Baptist Lancers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Marist Red Foxes vs. Fairfield Stagsbacked Marist Red Foxes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$82
Spread: Merrimack College Warriors (-9.5)backed Rider Broncs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$53.2
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$252
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 146.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$41.6
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Northern Kentucky Norse: O/U 157.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.97
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Northern Kentucky Norse: O/U 156.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$98
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 176.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+112.8%+$137.8
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Providence Friars: O/U 153.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$104
American Eagles vs. Navy Midshipmen: O/U 134.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$142.1
Stonehill Skyhawks vs. LIU Sharks: O/U 131.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$156
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsbacked Fairleigh Dickinson Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$184
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Georgia State Panthersbacked Northern Illinois Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$55.67
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs. Boston Terriersbacked Boston Terriers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+58.7%+$9.88
Villanova Wildcats vs. Georgetown Hoyasbacked Georgetown Hoyas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$51.25
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers: O/U 138.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$91.2
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$135
USC Upstate Spartans vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs: O/U 140.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$70
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 160.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+108.3%+$109.2
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+122.2%+$99
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-4.5)backed Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+108.3%+$11.92
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+100%+$90
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST4156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+63.9%+$39
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$181.79
Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 206.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+104.1%+$193.8
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$191.1
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$82
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$195.5
Kings vs. Pelicansbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$101.49
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+72.4%+$101.64
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+29.9%+$107.64
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+117.4%+$102.6
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+132.6%+$125.4
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+75.4%+$150.5
Jazz vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+58.7%+$74
Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+156.4%+$105.74
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+132.6%+$134.8
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$434.5
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$49
76ers vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+66.8%+$80.5
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+108.3%+$57.2
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+100%+$200
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+132.6%+$136.17
Celtics vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$98.7
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+53.8%+$93.47
Pelicans vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+44.9%+$55.8
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eaglesbacked Chicago Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$89.7
AHL: Grand Rapids Griffins vs. Charlotte Checkersbacked Grand Rapids Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+100%+$200
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. San Jose Barracudabacked Coachella Valley Firebirds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Canucks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+38.9%+$56
Blues vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+53.8%+$49
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Rochester Americansbacked Belleville Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+138.1%+$87
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.7
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$84
Penguins vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$65.8
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. San Jose Barracudabacked Bakersfield Condors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$174.62
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Ontario Reignbacked Ontario Reign · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+112.8%+$127.2
Ducks vs. Krakenbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+108.3%+$78
Lightning vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+138.1%+$174
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$211.5
Penguins vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$142.6
Spread: Stars (-1.5)backed Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$85
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsbacked Belleville Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+156.4%+$170.8
Kings vs. Ducksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Canadiens vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+69.5%+$138.98
Canucks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+117.4%+$58.7
Flames vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+132.6%+$57
All 21 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Maccabi Tel Avivbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+270.4%+$608.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$96
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.