NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. San Jose Barracuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204939f2be7ea0e8bbbd9949d2df6198ce5fe8404c431c3351d18dd36c506b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose Barracudaof Bakersfield Condors, San Jose Barracuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed San Jose Barracuda | 55c | 5,538$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.72 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 1,494$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bakersfield Condors | 44c | 1,395$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.8 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 800$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed San Jose Barracuda | 55c | 452.44$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.6 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 388.05$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 377.39$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 182.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1b…0ed2backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…4340backed Bakersfield Condors | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.