NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea51433bd6e7a776b449e6c88e2a20e4fe7e03fb193bfa7113196f07a6dbf27e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 59c | 11,000$6,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,439.98 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 5,231$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,053.39 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 3,637$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.45 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 42c | 1,572$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.48 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Over | 58c | 1,047$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 998$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.99 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 59c | 991.15$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.28 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Over | 58c | 900$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…4608backed Over | 57c | 866$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 41c | 746.07$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.18 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 42c | 619.05$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.05 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 42c | 526.19$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.19 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 502$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.18 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 43c | 497.13$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.36 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 443.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.51 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under | 42c | 352.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 43c | 302.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.33 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…1058backed Under | 43c | 299$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…50bfbacked Under | 43c | 288$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 42c | 282.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…24eabacked Under | 43c | 279$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Over | 57c | 90.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Over | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 42c | 69.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 69c | 53.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816b…3bbcbacked Over | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131e…3343backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 59c | 26.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Under | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. BlackhawksLightning won
- Lightning vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.