TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0925…462c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+74%+$50.32
76ers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+81.8%+$37.55
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15.27
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.37
Hawks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+50.5%+$13.41
Spread: Heat (-7.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+117.4%+$12.35
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11.93
Lakers vs. Mavericksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+25%+$10.36
Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+112.8%+$55.81
Heat vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$28.63
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+53.7%+$14.05
Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+72.4%+$7.92
Celtics vs. Bullsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$68.68
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+100%+$29.59
Raptors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+47.1%+$20
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12.64
Suns vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+72.4%+$12.81
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: California Baptist Lancers (-1.5)backed California Baptist Lancers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+108.3%+$19.24
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Southern Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$26.68
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers: O/U 149.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$28.19
Spread: Stanford Cardinal (-4.5)backed Stanford Cardinal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$25.01
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Fairfield Stags: O/U 141.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20.96
San Diego State Aztecs vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebelsbacked San Diego State Aztecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+28.2%+$14.39
Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$35.39
Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangsbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+40.9%+$13.54
Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raidersbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+191.4%+$30.07
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Ramsbacked Colorado State Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: O/U 134.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$260.1
Wagner Seahawks vs. Le Moyne Dolphins: O/U 144.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$66.22
Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5)backed Indiana Hoosiers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Spread: South Florida Bulls (-3.5)backed UAB Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$28.84
All 14 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$23.81
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+89.8%+$46.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA Rosario Central vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8.84
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+78.5%+$22.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$20.93
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$23.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$114.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U19 World Cup: England Under-19s vs India Under-19sbacked India Under-19s · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+42.9%+$47.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+27.7%+$9.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$15.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$62.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.