TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Rublev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$650,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$686,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $650,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 402 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56fc…733ebacked Cerundolo51c67,408$34,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,236.7711053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Rublev55c38,376$21,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,218.7511633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Rublev56c35,702$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0004560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo62c31,144$19,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,721.6311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rublev1c30,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Cerundolo45c25,328$11,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,894.9310541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Cerundolo45c20,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,0006552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rublev42c17,118$7,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,215.068,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cerundolo44c15,000$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,3505955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Rublev44c14,699$6,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,533.6159151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Rublev42c13,211$5,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,535.871,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Rublev55c13,143$7,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,228.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-55.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Cerundolo45c12,000$5,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,659.969546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce8…07f5backed Rublev0c10,170$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Rublev55c10,000$5,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,471.737146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Cerundolo54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,600.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf837…8b61backed Rublev1c9,281$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.462152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rublev40c9,005$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,559.4765647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Cerundolo45c8,858$3,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,872.1618237.9%69 W · 113 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Cerundolo44c8,235$3,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,611.63537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cerundolo53c7,924$4,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.972,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Rublev1c7,842$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.374332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Rublev54c7,113$3,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840.7676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Rublev55c6,914$3,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,802.515644.6%25 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Cerundolo67c6,552$4,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.282,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…ca34backed Cerundolo43c6,214$2,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,542.194060%24 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Rublev55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3009242.4%39 W · 53 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Rublev53c6,000$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.0914343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cerundolo44c5,875$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.672,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cerundolo46c5,711$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,071.561,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Rublev54c5,600$3,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0246439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Rublev57c5,496$3,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,132.4793055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Rublev55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Rublev54c4,909$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,641.751822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cerundolo45c4,790$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.641,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Cerundolo44c4,460$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.863935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo58c4,374$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.237,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Rublev44c4,346$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.615232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Rublev46c4,267$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9608158%47 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Cerundolo51c4,198$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.776146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cerundolo45c3,770$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.4531332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Rublev54c3,700$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9988142%34 W · 47 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Rublev54c3,700$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.998825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Cerundolo44c3,588$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.0633955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae17…b10dbacked Rublev56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Rublev55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9254560%27 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Rublev48c3,500$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69557645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Cerundolo46c3,458$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.668060%48 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Rublev37c3,168$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17330847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Rublev49c3,152$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.0329654.4%161 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Rublev57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71014940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Cerundolo50c2,984$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.3633256%186 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Rublev34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00036968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cerundolo44c2,843$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.732,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Rublev55c2,818$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55013260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf84e…6cbebacked Rublev38c2,787$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.592227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Cerundolo45c2,667$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.6744754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b08…1531backed Cerundolo44c2,664$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Cerundolo43c2,434$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.0628338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Rublev52c2,300$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2022445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3744…3e65backed Rublev1c2,257$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.712835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cc…1130backed Rublev55c2,253$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bcc…de43backed Rublev56c2,197$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.391963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Cerundolo46c2,174$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.119846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Cerundolo46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.9132637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Cerundolo45c2,098$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.122152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Cerundolo45c2,000$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.671,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Cerundolo50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00026045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Rublev38c1,881$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.712650%13 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Rublev49c1,849$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.811,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Rublev55c1,800$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99029649.7%147 W · 149 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Rublev56c1,800$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00820653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb101…5024backed Rublev56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Rublev57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Cerundolo45c1,709$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.955036%18 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Rublev39c1,703$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.2129533.6%99 W · 196 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Rublev54c1,677$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.25860.3%35 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Rublev30c1,645$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Rublev48c1,640$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.15133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Rublev1c1,636$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rublev54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81027944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Cerundolo46c1,495$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.1324448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Rublev56c1,487$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.591,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cerundolo55c1,420$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.122,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed Rublev1c1,407$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.076657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Rublev56c1,407$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.1617432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cerundolo46c1,376$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.032445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Rublev44c1,367$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.7925556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Cerundolo46c1,253$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.621,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Rublev32c1,250$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Rublev55c1,154$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Cerundolo42c1,148$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.0325428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Rublev43c1,138$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.1738348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Rublev37c1,090$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.9715648.7%76 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Rublev50c1,013$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9519023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Cerundolo45c1,011$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.111241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Rublev56c1,005$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.6612861.7%79 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Rublev56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56011650.9%59 W · 57 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Rublev56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56064540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Rublev19c999.2$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.851643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.