Tennis · resolved market
Cerundolo vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4457de908f86a55a9cab3286994a6b8f3e885d7fb7f352d8540402175284237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 999.99$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.59 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 791.4$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 761.1$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.33 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 676.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.52 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 425.14$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.85 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over 3.5 | 53c | 380.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 370.87$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…5bc2backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 312$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.08 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 30c | 207.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…ed3abacked Over 3.5 | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 68.9%73 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cb…b396backed Under 3.5 | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Under 3.5 | 57c | 52.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 43.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 41c | 38.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…13cdbacked Under 3.5 | 58c | 34.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…7749backed Over 3.5 | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…c5b3backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over 3.5 | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerundolo vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey RublevCerundolo won
- Cerundolo vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Rublev: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs RublevCerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Cerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.