TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6eac…5bc2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst Tennis at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST4245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Tennis — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,065
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+1,900%+$3,800
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$216
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaurbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
Bublik vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tienbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+185.7%+$94.25
Medvedev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$102
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$50.1
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruudbacked Cilic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100.1
Cerundolo vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$201.08
Australian Open Men's: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100.7
Tien vs. Borges: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Gea vs. Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$51.68
Australian Open Men's: Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$47.38
Shapovalov vs. Cilic: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$200.96
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Ethan Quinnbacked Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100.32
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonegobacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$35.36
Australian Open Men's: Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderibacked Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$97.6
Australian Open Men's: Karen Khachanov vs Nishesh Basavareddybacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+37%+$37.26
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Rafael Jodarbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+56.3%+$56.52
Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Francisco Comesanabacked Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$40.85
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergsbacked Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42.3
Australian Open Men's: Grigor Dimitrov vs Tomas Machacbacked Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)backed Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+28.2%+$28.21
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+120.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+56.3%+$57.6
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100.5
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$102.4
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid - Map 2 Winnerbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$19.5
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3)backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+1,566.7%+$187.98
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+63.9%+$11.68
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerbacked fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$174.71
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+28.2%+$56.45
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$104
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.1%+$150.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$36.24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.