TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Darderiof Baez, Darderi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5877…d894backed Darderi41c39,630$16,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,231.1911633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Darderi40c24,999$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,999.295064%32 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Baez60c18,486$11,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,096.8324448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Baez58c15,695$9,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,178.112259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Baez59c8,000$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,72021743.8%95 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Darderi53c7,625$4,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,590.6611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Darderi32c6,771$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,586.262,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Baez68c6,000$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,078.993537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Baez58c5,962$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.585228.8%15 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Baez61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.9643051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Darderi39c4,645$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.4531332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Darderi39c3,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8309546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15cb…820abacked Baez58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Baez61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Darderi50c2,891$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.797,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Baez40c2,532$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.7544754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Baez62c2,412$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50064540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Baez39c2,120$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.25444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Baez68c2,036$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.084,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Baez56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1205457.4%31 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Baez65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30044163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Darderi41c1,932$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.831753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Baez60c1,717$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03013852.9%73 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Baez39c1,699$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.882,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Baez48c1,399$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.172,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Baez59c1,374$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.6687251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Baez60c1,341$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.7611647.4%55 W · 61 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Darderi39c1,308$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.881,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Baez62c1,290$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80036968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f6…adc3backed Darderi38c1,195$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.887135.2%25 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Darderi66c1,094$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.641,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Baez49c1,021$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50062545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Darderi39c1,010$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.111843.2%51 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Baez61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61011650.9%59 W · 57 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Darderi54c934.13$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.538,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…46e0backed Baez61c900$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.76560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Baez62c808.12$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50063247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Darderi61c799.9$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8747057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Darderi39c768.98$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.0847639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Baez60c666$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.622344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…af57backed Baez60c648.15$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.895545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb878…e3e2backed Baez62c638.71$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Darderi40c630.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.667041.4%29 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Baez58c619$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.873745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Baez60c580.6$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35058753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Darderi39c556.07$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.132445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Darderi42c534.7$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.421,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Darderi38c532.44$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.113046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6809…b188backed Baez60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008269.5%57 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Baez36c500$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.55234.6%18 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Baez11c500$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd61…0002backed Darderi40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007040%28 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Baez62c483.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30065651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Baez63c476.91$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Baez37c453.84$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.792,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Baez52c403.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.126,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Baez62c403.23$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25026158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Darderi37c400$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.2827944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Baez55c380.72$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.573,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Darderi39c380$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.81435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4338…648ebacked Darderi52c352.84$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Baez29c346.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011046.4%51 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Baez47c339.12$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510247.1%48 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Darderi38c330.93$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.182,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Baez60c329.17$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.533241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Baez61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20059165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Baez62c324.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb13…8bb4backed Darderi64c313.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.481963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Darderi40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Baez75c266.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6826244.7%117 W · 145 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Darderi78c257.4$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.421,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Darderi40c254.1$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.469955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f78…bbe8backed Baez60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505450%27 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba4f…7ecebacked Baez60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Baez44c247.27$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Darderi38c240.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14812033.3%40 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Darderi38c233.45$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.744032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Baez54c228.51$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2110827.8%30 W · 78 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb361…85dbbacked Baez21c217.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4580%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf463…8e9dbacked Baez62c209.68$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Baez48c206.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7510059%59 W · 41 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Baez19c202.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.752,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Darderi38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd29b…b518backed Baez61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210843.5%47 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8be…f991backed Baez46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.67027.1%19 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Baez62c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12318863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1362…16ccbacked Darderi40c199.85$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.934540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x029f…9970backed Baez60c195$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Baez36c194.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.839744.3%43 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe450…a40abacked Baez62c193.85$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.192669.2%18 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Darderi37c175$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0427836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2911…fed6backed Darderi66c173.02$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.671794.1%16 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.23per pick72cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Baez62c171.39$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2632448.1%156 W · 168 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Baez62c170.97$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10622744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4291…b6bdbacked Baez60c167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.24658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21bd…ae93backed Baez60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Baez61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050952.1%265 W · 244 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Baez62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Baez62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009144%40 W · 51 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Baez61c160.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0454547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.