TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Djokovicof Djokovic, Sinner
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,065,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,223,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,065,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 839 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Djokovic10c199,999$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179,999.432245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+81.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Djokovic25c142,429$35,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,042.6780938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Djokovic9c132,692$11,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,749.63525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Djokovic12c124,009$15,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,712.4745737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…4403backed Djokovic10c108,752$11,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,699.246829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Djokovic10c100,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,00011230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Djokovic11c74,644$8,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,637.7410443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sinner75c70,178$52,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,974.388,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sinner54c57,977$31,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,375.2311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Djokovic9c54,398$4,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,501.921,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Djokovic10c50,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,0003336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Djokovic11c45,859$4,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,869.6419134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb4…3214backed Djokovic11c45,000$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,030.092326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee9…f06cbacked Djokovic8c43,989$3,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,276.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,085%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Sinner79c43,426$34,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,131.0375748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f1…a190backed Djokovic11c41,471$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,071.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+842.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed Djokovic32c40,990$13,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,917.81618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Djokovic10c39,994$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,994.5513934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Djokovic9c35,000$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,985.4114243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked Djokovic10c29,920$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,927.984117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Djokovic11c27,273$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,272.7310440.4%42 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Djokovic28c23,753$6,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,102.0511633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Djokovic9c22,858$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,858.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+185.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Djokovic57c22,708$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,708.494560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x048b…09efbacked Djokovic7c22,208$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,698.561020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid+66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Djokovic11c21,573$2,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,199.736235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Djokovic22c20,609$4,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,052.6423731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fe…9607backed Djokovic17c20,181$3,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,657.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Djokovic10c20,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0001540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Djokovic10c20,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+192.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea9…63ffbacked Sinner0c19,651$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6126…5732backed Djokovic10c19,246$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,321.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5a…094ebacked Djokovic6c17,195$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,146.48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+446.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Djokovic10c17,009$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,280.7172132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5250…0757backed Djokovic5c14,600$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,879250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+912.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Sinner61c13,482$8,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,196.132,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Djokovic19c11,845$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,592.936150.8%31 W · 30 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd744…8df5backed Sinner41c11,753$4,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,875.95560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Djokovic15c11,620$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,893.7657939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Sinner0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked Djokovic8c11,000$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,134.341258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Sinner6c10,490$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.6152037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Sinner58c10,385$6,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,045.622,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f58…6f3cbacked Djokovic11c10,327$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,191.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Sinner55c10,011$5,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,467.561,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Djokovic11c9,766$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,667.221,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Djokovic4c9,643$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,222.291225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+122.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sinner33c9,108$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.956,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x130a…b382backed Djokovic11c9,076$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,078.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x607b…4012backed Djokovic10c8,991$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,092.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Djokovic11c8,613$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,665.331464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Djokovic16c8,000$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,751.9842839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Djokovic15c7,000$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,921.994742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d74…eda1backed Djokovic15c6,988$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,908.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+115.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Djokovic26c6,797$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,018.342,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Sinner68c6,604$4,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Sinner68c6,500$4,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4351637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Sinner72c6,402$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590.615427.8%15 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Sinner72c6,294$4,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,545.511053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…55c5backed Sinner3c6,276$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Djokovic10c6,070$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,463.3911941.2%49 W · 70 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bca…ca1fbacked Djokovic11c6,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,340250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Djokovic11c5,844$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,225.1310756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Djokovic11c5,800$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,16222737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sinner63c5,758$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,635.453,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c9…e904backed Djokovic12c5,726$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,066.442334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Sinner60c5,715$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.871,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Djokovic11c5,520$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,896.993933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Sinner58c5,315$3,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,103.8897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Sinner38c5,293$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.7911647.4%55 W · 61 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Sinner56c5,071$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.425160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Djokovic10c5,050$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5458721.8%19 W · 68 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e1…b30fbacked Djokovic10c5,043$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,542.63633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+102.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Djokovic11c5,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,450837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+143.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Djokovic11c5,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,45022641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Djokovic9c5,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,55022344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Djokovic7c4,655$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,315.26525.8%3 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Djokovic11c4,545$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,045.452958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Djokovic10c4,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.9955243.3%239 W · 313 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sinner24c4,468$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.7316825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Djokovic16c4,359$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,671.873930.8%12 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3904…0cafbacked Djokovic6c4,231$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,991.862010%2 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-3.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a9d…0effbacked Djokovic16c4,206$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,546.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+208%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Sinner39c4,100$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6011,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a23…aaa8backed Sinner0c4,003$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…5bc2backed Djokovic5c4,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8004245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Djokovic10c4,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,600520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+100%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Djokovic15c3,996$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.9730645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd382…8885backed Djokovic22c3,963$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4372…6a96backed Djokovic8c3,919$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,618.36520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+160.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Djokovic18c3,902$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,202.169264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed Djokovic9c3,853$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,518.673240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Djokovic10c3,850$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,464.941,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c6…0ebebacked Djokovic10c3,844$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.591323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…f4ffbacked Djokovic12c3,769$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.892142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Djokovic11c3,735$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.997152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…f949backed Djokovic5c3,700$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,515757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+299.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Sinner0c3,663$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98713.8%12 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Djokovic43c3,600$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.7137444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Djokovic45c3,500$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.98785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+40.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.