Tennis · resolved market
Medvedev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a95b1dadad220da09c8760c9da5359af865abd149144dce32f087b1b8f46c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2a…a10cbacked Over 3.5 | 50c | 3,440$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…257bbacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 3,440$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…af57backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 2,901$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 2,399$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.09 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 829.94$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.36 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 740.39$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.93 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 645.96$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 611.84$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.85 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 29c | 460.23$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…a27ebacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 457.87$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.31 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 445.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 243.79$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Over 3.5 | 63c | 182.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…4680backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 153.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…5bc2backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 148.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 134.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…c5b3backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 108$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 97.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Over 3.5 | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…9e46backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 76.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…2227backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -10.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…5ddabacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Over 3.5 | 71c | 70.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 66.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1149…6af0backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe054…ba89backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 33.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…a2a9backed Over 3.5 | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…5065backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…9b30backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Medvedev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner TienTien won
- Medvedev vs. Tien: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Tien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs TienTien won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Tien won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5)Tien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.