TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64fc…9b30

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST8960.7%54 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 89 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Pistons vs. Nuggetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.43
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$285
Nuggets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Celtics vs. Netsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
Rockets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Suns vs. Hawksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Jazzbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.29
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Pistons vs. Pelicansbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$4.23
Suns vs. 76ersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+85.2%+$12.78
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.13
Clippers vs. Wizardsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+44.9%+$5.27
Thunder vs. Cavaliersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+49.3%+$4.95
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Nets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+44.9%+$15.72
Magic vs. Grizzliesbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+72.4%+$36.21
Suns vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$29.5
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$16.47
Bucks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+42.9%+$21.43
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+74.8%+$85.37
Thunder vs. Rocketsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+55.7%+$99.06
Suns vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+44%+$90.51
Grizzlies vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+51.6%+$107.95
Showing 25 of 89 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3865.8%25 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Cincinnati Open: Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.44
Cincinnati Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$11.68
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilaganbacked Adam Walton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdobacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrvabacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.74
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyerbacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.55
Prostejov: Miguel Damas vs Damir Dzumhurbacked Damir Dzumhur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.27
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.5
Bublik vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15.75
Medvedev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Zverev vs. Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinnbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.43
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.5
Australian Open Men's: Rei Sakamoto vs Rafael Jodarbacked Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+51.5%+$5.33
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignonbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+29.9%+$6.21
Australian Open Men's: Jaume Munar vs Dalibor Svrcinabacked Munar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.45
Australian Open Men's: Brandon Nakashima vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Australian Open Men's: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksbybacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+28.2%+$10.44
Australian Open Men's: Patrick Kypson vs Francisco Comesanabacked Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobollibacked Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Adelaide International: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Kordabacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$260
ASB Classic, Qualification: Eliot Spizzirri vs Juan Manuel Cerundolobacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Brisbane International: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsenbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+28.2%+$7.05
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Predatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Stars vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+100%+$15
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+26.6%+$9.3
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$11.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+56.3%+$37.91
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Los Ratones vs Fnatic (BO1)backed Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.2
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3)backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$59.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitória SC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$163.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$766Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$765.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 3)backed India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.