TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Borgesof Borges, Auger-Aliassime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Borges50c22,987$11,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,602.811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Auger-Aliassime30c7,434$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.656,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Auger-Aliassime6c7,349$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.324,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Borges50c7,102$3,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,529.752,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Borges24c6,940$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,274.6176140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Auger-Aliassime75c5,951$4,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,464.598,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Auger-Aliassime55c5,800$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.181,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Auger-Aliassime72c5,067$3,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.551,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Auger-Aliassime75c4,628$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,490.4265558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Auger-Aliassime74c3,530$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60013844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Borges25c2,381$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.22,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Borges24c2,080$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.798825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Auger-Aliassime19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Borges19c1,893$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.667,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Auger-Aliassime75c1,618$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.142479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed Auger-Aliassime78c1,601$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.113554.8%74 W · 61 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Borges24c1,430$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.1227733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Borges28c1,115$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.7919023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Borges16c1,094$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.62,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Auger-Aliassime60c999.88$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.567057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Borges26c817.66$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.362,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Borges36c816.26$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.611,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Borges28c754.1$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.052,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Auger-Aliassime29c742.94$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.875444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Auger-Aliassime41c609.84$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5247057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Auger-Aliassime76c493$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.681,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Auger-Aliassime74c474.21$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Borges28c457.18$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.3827836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked Borges48c409.57$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.472857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Borges25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Auger-Aliassime72c384.34$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2771947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Auger-Aliassime78c381.49$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.262,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Borges8c317.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.282,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Auger-Aliassime4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121085.6%6 W · 102 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Auger-Aliassime9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Borges9c300$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.54599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Auger-Aliassime45c300$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1365554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Borges52c292.48$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2914947.7%71 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Auger-Aliassime75c266.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20059165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…5bc2backed Auger-Aliassime75c264.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.894245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x788d…99bbbacked Auger-Aliassime76c263.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Auger-Aliassime71c240.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.392548.8%451 W · 474 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Auger-Aliassime47c223$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.886432.8%21 W · 43 L-8.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Borges46c205.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.988455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Auger-Aliassime75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Borges25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Auger-Aliassime19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafd4…4432backed Borges26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1485435.2%19 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbe…4d6abacked Auger-Aliassime20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405735.1%20 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Borges27c187.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4610247.1%48 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Borges48c172.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.515944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8f…8ed0backed Borges36c165.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.164736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Borges38c160$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.85234.6%18 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Borges77c150.05$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5128754%155 W · 132 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Auger-Aliassime76c149.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3210059%59 W · 41 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Auger-Aliassime45c141.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.312119%4 W · 17 L-4.7wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-68.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5eb8…5466backed Borges29c141.38$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.383441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Auger-Aliassime37c134.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ad…6b4cbacked Auger-Aliassime75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Auger-Aliassime76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…a5cebacked Auger-Aliassime76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick75cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2f18backed Auger-Aliassime76c115.32$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e4c…c962backed Auger-Aliassime76c114.21$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.51968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa32c…1f39backed Borges48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Auger-Aliassime76c100.46$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4918863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Auger-Aliassime76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2523852.1%124 W · 114 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Borges27c99.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.027533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Borges37c96.87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0316144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Borges38c90.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.934050%20 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Borges24c87.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5312033.3%40 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dab…4522backed Auger-Aliassime77c85.63$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.913946.2%18 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x73c0…0afebacked Auger-Aliassime76c85.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Auger-Aliassime55c81.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Auger-Aliassime77c78.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7228139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Auger-Aliassime76c68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6813762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78a…61c4backed Auger-Aliassime75c67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2515364.1%98 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Auger-Aliassime76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa660…f81abacked Borges48c62.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.681675%12 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f59…c79bbacked Auger-Aliassime80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32a…dea9backed Auger-Aliassime76c59.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511454.4%62 W · 52 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Borges35c58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.71,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Auger-Aliassime25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7526837.3%100 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b3…ea4abacked Borges25c54.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Auger-Aliassime76c52.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408243.9%36 W · 46 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b86…3010backed Auger-Aliassime76c52.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e21…4dccbacked Borges45c51.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.853764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef4b…f8babacked Borges46c50.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.271656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc55…3f46backed Auger-Aliassime75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.525074%37 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Borges24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87a…2ee0backed Borges24c49.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.992857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Auger-Aliassime75c45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.958438.2%223 W · 361 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Borges45c44.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6374961.8%463 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a67…0355backed Borges43c37.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.372045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Auger-Aliassime75c34.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.922755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Borges44c32.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3122236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Borges37c32.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3227627.2%75 W · 201 L-25.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x182f…87d2backed Auger-Aliassime76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95369.8%37 W · 16 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Auger-Aliassime77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014272.5%103 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba8…90a3backed Auger-Aliassime76c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1948852.9%258 W · 230 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…25afbacked Auger-Aliassime75c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.