TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Seahawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seahawksof 49ers, Seahawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,511,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,228,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,511,185 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,771 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers27c1,260,039$336,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336,962.8747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked 49ers28c1,025,968$287,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287,118.944250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed 49ers27c881,811$235,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,862.4410333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Seahawks75c810,833$608,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,721.4512055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Seahawks72c754,285$543,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,199.894057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers20c484,056$94,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,452.4247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Seahawks74c440,623$326,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,876.9127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Seahawks77c398,596$306,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,511.6130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked 49ers27c382,275$104,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,409.845431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Seahawks72c333,133$240,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,093.3925956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Seahawks72c299,997$215,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,999.1417454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked 49ers26c205,815$53,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,453.137554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Seahawks73c200,000$145,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,499.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed 49ers12c195,195$22,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,947.921050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 49ers13c184,656$23,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,767.7323244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Seahawks73c183,965$134,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,717.226764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbadf…f617backed 49ers2c179,431$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick12cpaid+336.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers28c157,317$44,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,704.2853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Seahawks72c154,000$111,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,799.9924957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Seahawks73c136,945$99,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,975.172161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 49ers22c123,120$27,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,159.2816955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Seahawks73c117,742$86,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,218.0211544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2db…aa08backed 49ers10c115,443$11,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,044.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Seahawks73c110,000$80,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,299.983050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf04a…2851backed 49ers0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac7…e0efbacked Seahawks71c90,200$64,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,149.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Seahawks72c90,000$64,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,199.9418156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed 49ers25c75,368$18,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,841.8831240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed 49ers12c74,782$8,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,933.642740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed 49ers2c74,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24015132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers3c68,487$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.5733328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked 49ers27c65,092$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,5007034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers27c63,763$17,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,215.981,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Seahawks72c60,093$43,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,968.2156852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Seahawks74c60,000$44,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,799.9916051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Seahawks74c54,517$40,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,326.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed 49ers28c53,354$14,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,917.963033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers27c51,790$13,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,872.1220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Seahawks76c50,000$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.9923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd81…9640backed 49ers10c49,237$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,003.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Seahawks72c46,609$33,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,050.6424652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9da…fafebacked 49ers0c45,970$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Seahawks72c42,485$30,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,869.2519152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 49ers28c40,531$11,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,343.729447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked 49ers15c40,006$5,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,981.013724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Seahawks73c40,000$29,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8003366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b29…9108backed 49ers15c39,038$5,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,768.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Seahawks72c36,056$25,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,095.752850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked 49ers28c35,774$10,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,004.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Seahawks74c35,000$25,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,20035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Seahawks71c34,500$24,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,004.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 49ers25c34,169$8,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,656.6131543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Seahawks80c32,577$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,576.861747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x780b…8875backed 49ers17c31,841$5,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,315.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b1…614cbacked 49ers1c30,335$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.134415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-44.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 49ers26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8003548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed 49ers0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Seahawks74c30,000$22,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.983020%6 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked 49ers15c29,691$4,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,484.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed 49ers25c28,969$7,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,163.5216036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked 49ers15c27,020$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Seahawks73c26,697$19,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,208.143737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7ebbbacked 49ers6c25,556$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Seahawks73c25,347$18,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,737.22887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Seahawks75c25,000$18,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,272.7311146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8da…f944backed 49ers24c24,999$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.766750.7%34 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Seahawks73c23,834$17,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,377.0312744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Seahawks73c21,490$15,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,841.6324056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Seahawks72c20,857$15,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,808.14362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Seahawks72c20,825$14,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8312965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked 49ers14c20,249$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.547737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked 49ers26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Seahawks73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked 49ers1c18,746$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed 49ers27c18,519$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked 49ers27c18,473$4,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,987.63630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked 49ers1c18,220$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.351486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Seahawks74c18,098$13,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,630.228447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed 49ers28c18,095$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.846028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed 49ers25c18,078$4,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,565.811855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed 49ers28c18,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0402941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0eb…b103backed 49ers29c17,468$5,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,112.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed 49ers29c17,000$4,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,93090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Seahawks75c16,999$12,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.845472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed 49ers13c16,323$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.65234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Seahawks73c16,318$11,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.831656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed 49ers0c15,936$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.84980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Seahawks74c15,555$11,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,044.32369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Seahawks78c15,524$12,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,418.6414148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e4…e4e3backed 49ers11c15,035$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Seahawks74c15,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9007042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked 49ers27c13,786$3,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,686.38428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Seahawks71c13,145$9,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,812.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Seahawks74c13,000$9,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,439.995352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed 49ers27c12,559$3,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,403.061520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Seahawks74c12,500$9,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Seahawks74c12,320$9,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,203.1720661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Seahawks74c12,096$8,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,155.882661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed 49ers17c11,918$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0601275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+44.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10c6…4e86backed 49ers1c11,895$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.