NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085d4d580d7090dfb016e27bc0c92fe795adefc3cc7b68053482ce56349ae5e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 58c | 854.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 350$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 57c | 301$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 289$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 42c | 221.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 199.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 57c | 198$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad9…8c96backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 58c | 171.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 41c | 167.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 145.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Under | 58c | 134.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 57c | 128$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 59c | 106$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Under | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Under | 57c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Under | 59c | 74.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 59c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 57c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Over | 43c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 42c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…2a97backed Under | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- 49ers vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5Over won
- AJ Barner: Receiving Yards O/U 30.5Under won
- Christian McCaffrey: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Christian McCaffrey: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 110.5Under won
- Jake Tonges: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jauan Jennings: Receiving Yards O/U 42.5Under won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 93.5Under won
- Kenneth Walker III: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Rashid Shaheed: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Rashid Shaheed: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Rashid Shaheed: Receiving Yards O/U 23.5Under won
- Sam Darnold: Rushing Yards O/U 247.5Under won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 28.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
- Zach Charbonnet: Anytime TouchdownNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.