NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1add6ecf48516e756696c0ca637c2039fa42735a8d78629890a3c717a1471d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked Under | 67c | 3,732$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Over | 55c | 1,833$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad9…8c96backed Under | 1c | 1,324$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,288$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.84 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Over | 12c | 1,102$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.78 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 869$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.51 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 605.45$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 421$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 47c | 189.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 45c | 149$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 52c | 103$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 102.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…47efbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Under | 49c | 95.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 51c | 93.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 52c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 65.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 22.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- 49ers vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5Over won
- AJ Barner: Receiving Yards O/U 30.5Under won
- Christian McCaffrey: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Christian McCaffrey: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 110.5Under won
- Jake Tonges: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jauan Jennings: Receiving Yards O/U 42.5Under won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 93.5Under won
- Kenneth Walker III: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Rashid Shaheed: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Rashid Shaheed: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Rashid Shaheed: Receiving Yards O/U 23.5Under won
- Sam Darnold: Rushing Yards O/U 247.5Under won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 28.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
- Zach Charbonnet: Anytime TouchdownNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.