TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: 49ers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seahawksof 49ers, Seahawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdcc0…6872backed Seahawks75c242$182 inWon+$60.086446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x575b…14f0backed 49ers25c200$50 inLost-$504946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb496…fd45backed 49ers27c145.61$40 inLost-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Seahawks72c115.11$83 inWon+$31.7656852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Seahawks78c78.62$61 inWon+$17.1436341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25a…8bc3backed 49ers29c75.17$22 inLost-$21.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc1…dc77backed 49ers22c74.6$16 inLost-$16.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Seahawks71c71.78$51 inWon+$20.7119439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc0…3acebacked 49ers33c60.61$20 inLost-$203756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed 49ers23c54.92$13 inLost-$12.7530442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 49ers23c44.6$10 inLost-$10.2616045%72 W · 88 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Seahawks76c32.14$24 inWon+$7.666570.8%46 W · 19 L+11.6wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4627…b4b0backed Seahawks78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.645869%40 W · 18 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.