TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clippersof Clippers, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,868,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,996,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,868,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 980 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Wizards29c155,000$45,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,199.9451844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Clippers71c126,185$90,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,184.871,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Wizards28c100,000$28,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,999.982937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Wizards31c60,000$18,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,699.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Clippers72c55,217$39,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,689.762,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked Clippers65c51,405$33,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,188.264443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Clippers71c41,640$29,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,075.659646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Wizards29c38,866$11,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,271.2859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Clippers64c31,893$20,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,418.412,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Clippers70c28,609$19,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,695.345,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Clippers65c26,499$17,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,264.971,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Clippers71c26,356$18,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,623.9272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Clippers72c24,800$17,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,943.9219653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa898…8d2ebacked Clippers79c24,067$19,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,067.18955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Wizards26c23,659$6,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,034.679640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Wizards32c22,812$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,299.879857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Wizards29c20,947$6,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,015.0735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Wizards28c20,768$5,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,81517356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Clippers67c19,943$13,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,512.6914751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Clippers73c16,438$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,438.366540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Wizards27c16,418$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,432.8627424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Clippers69c15,861$10,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,991.7522458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Clippers72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.8976746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Wizards36c13,498$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Wizards29c13,000$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,769.9620744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Clippers71c12,246$8,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,565.914,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers72c12,099$8,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,435.224,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Clippers65c11,238$7,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,921.3485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Wizards30c10,709$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.350347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9373…4c6bbacked Clippers71c10,474$7,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,037.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Clippers70c10,286$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.714961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Clippers68c10,200$6,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,26410949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Wizards27c10,039$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.991,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Wizards28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wizards50c10,000$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,049.9848845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Wizards21c9,707$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.631,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Wizards29c9,647$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793.551,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Wizards28c7,857$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee4…1cefbacked Wizards1c7,745$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers64c7,090$4,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.258,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Clippers70c6,993$4,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.855251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards28c6,924$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.469,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Wizards30c6,867$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.0561939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Clippers53c6,628$3,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.245248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Wizards33c6,038$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Wizards29c6,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Wizards35c5,524$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.081,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Clippers70c5,478$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.6723348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers70c5,326$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.152,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Clippers71c5,277$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.2338046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards29c5,050$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.491,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Clippers71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Clippers70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Wizards44c5,000$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.6580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Clippers71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Clippers68c4,802$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.6852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf6e…d642backed Clippers68c4,700$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards39c4,123$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.512,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5913…a09ebacked Clippers73c4,113$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.041957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Wizards23c4,067$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.9239744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Wizards34c4,000$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.7542640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Clippers68c3,860$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.246342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…1667backed Clippers54c3,852$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.856253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8520…2a3cbacked Wizards57c3,789$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.613748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Clippers71c3,664$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.551,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Clippers71c3,625$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.1289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Wizards30c3,566$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.7681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Clippers41c3,302$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.0410144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e6…e300backed Clippers69c3,188$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.381526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf65…f5ffbacked Clippers69c3,185$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.631050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Wizards28c3,065$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.7160549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Wizards29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Wizards30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18dd…c89cbacked Clippers60c2,783$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Clippers71c2,582$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.8562347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Wizards27c2,516$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6161336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Wizards27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards47c2,442$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.343,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Clippers73c2,437$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.8822459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Wizards48c2,412$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.5943653.2%232 W · 204 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Clippers71c2,396$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.930947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Wizards28c2,381$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.84643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7130…a163backed Clippers80c2,352$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.858844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Clippers65c2,308$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.6911142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards35c2,280$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.093,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Clippers71c2,227$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.5376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Clippers63c2,222$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.146357.1%36 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Wizards9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9835326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Wizards47c2,220$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.2213250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…d3e2backed Wizards27c2,209$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6410644.3%47 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Wizards33c2,186$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Wizards29c2,070$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.2938434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…9828backed Clippers78c2,069$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.075238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Clippers74c2,065$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.6883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Wizards35c2,039$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.5150838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Wizards28c2,035$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.771735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3f…9b74backed Wizards1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa537…8e4abacked Clippers73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+62.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Clippers72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Wizards28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.