NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd86b1c9ac7abe2f2260bccff1c73b2b5aaa8bd72c764d232f9b8a5cbf632e04f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 19,187$9,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,977.24 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 48c | 13,587$6,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,065.24 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,981$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 49c | 1,284$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 602.52$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.31 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 47c | 372.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.04 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 320$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…2564backed Under | 63c | 317.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 37c | 292.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 56c | 80.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 53.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 60c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 50c | 39.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 25.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Under | 49c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5this page
- Clippers vs. WizardsClippers won
- Clippers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- James Harden: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Clippers (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Clippers (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.