TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd744…526f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 56 out of 100; worst La Liga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT4443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$1,273
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$285
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.25
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$550
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$560
Pacers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$420
Hornets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$775Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+93.5%+$725
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 217.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$265
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 238.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Knicks vs. Clippersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$519.99
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,280Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$720
Knicks vs. Nuggetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+104.1%+$509.99
Suns vs. Kingsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$69,420Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+28.2%+$19,580
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$8,790Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$8,789.65
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$490
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+100%+$500
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$560
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$350
Bucks vs. Bullsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$590
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$589.95
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$280
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+37%+$270
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$955Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+57.1%+$545
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$270
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,960
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.52
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$425
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,313Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$2,687.5
Will France win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$16,599.98
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$2,750
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16,000
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$676.43
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$37,749.98
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$7,400
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$2,199.98
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$8,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,000
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+344.6%+$775.07
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.5
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.75
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,582Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$4,748.02
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$899.99
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$5,499.94
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$3,500
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,899.7
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$634.98
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$3,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$11,399.99
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+223.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10,939Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,938.94
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.81
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+66.7%+$2,000
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+186.2%+$2,050.84
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$113.35
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+1,893.3%+$2,737.42
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,069Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,068.92
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,230Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+368.1%+$11,888.74
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$44.22
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+75.4%+$215
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$914Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$914
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,160
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.