TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,862,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,191,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,862,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94a4…6356backed Yes28c440,000$124,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,975.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes4c169,503$6,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,785.57100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b22…c824backed Yes5c133,698$6,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,227.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa03…c9ffbacked Yes5c112,968$5,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,852.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes5c101,304$5,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,361.095437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No79c95,318$75,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,203.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+992%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No74c57,983$42,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,194.341947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83f8…d9f1backed Yes9c57,311$5,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,344.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0462…cddebacked Yes14c56,352$7,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,895.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c52,574$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.46883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2db…d5b7backed Yes12c51,626$6,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,216.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes14c49,079$6,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,984.592528%7 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes3c47,499$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.97170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes8c46,411$3,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,717.096219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af8…9a99backed Yes4c46,013$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca7…98d1backed Yes5c40,811$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.74450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+95.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Yes21c38,055$8,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,149.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Yes10c37,212$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No78c36,287$28,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,020.6713918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No75c35,824$26,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,094.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes19c34,005$6,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,577.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48a5…0f2dbacked Yes12c32,687$4,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No77c30,048$23,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,911.031315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c29,451$5,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,158.4756314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes7c28,416$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.037919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes21c28,030$5,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.622638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes8c27,421$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.53728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c26,629$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.382344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb003…adf5backed Yes11c25,165$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No78c22,286$17,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,845.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22bd…ad18backed Yes6c21,973$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes19c21,693$4,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,061.981030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a7…60fcbacked Yes22c21,691$4,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,874.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes10c21,620$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.782927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d11…855bbacked Yes4c21,519$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd0…24a3backed Yes10c19,200$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb93e…b8fdbacked Yes10c18,894$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes4c18,068$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.254367.4%29 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x843e…d2f3backed Yes9c17,118$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5801…1e52backed Yes4c16,420$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes9c15,488$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked No76c15,285$11,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,717.115536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes11c15,253$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.9448224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes19c14,442$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.683135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Yes12c14,382$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.26425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes1c14,220$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+47.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes12c13,856$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.432630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No78c13,627$10,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,997.892941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e00…3b2fbacked Yes7c12,670$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb358…eb11backed Yes10c12,159$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+573.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a38…77bdbacked Yes8c11,145$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes18c11,111$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c7…9370backed Yes5c11,017$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes3c11,000$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes4c10,753$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.561612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…5692backed Yes8c10,469$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…e231backed Yes10c10,297$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378b…4ce4backed Yes13c10,097$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes2c9,930$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.41147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7f…4b91backed Yes7c9,876$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9268…dcb8backed Yes3c9,854$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191c…f0b4backed Yes4c9,715$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf284…cbfbbacked Yes7c9,633$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c9,537$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.871691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes17c9,032$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3844…3ca3backed Yes4c8,996$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa74…ab5bbacked Yes13c8,951$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x514b…e440backed Yes12c8,619$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8aa…b64bbacked Yes12c8,383$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7b…c328backed Yes6c8,082$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f9…1e9ebacked Yes15c8,061$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No78c7,500$5,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.777650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf847…507cbacked Yes9c7,445$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…b5b5backed Yes9c7,432$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes10c7,353$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.46205%1 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb9a…afc3backed Yes4c7,311$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No68c7,225$4,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.483537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e9…1045backed Yes7c7,220$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No78c7,165$5,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.232564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4ed…9a97backed Yes5c7,159$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.141030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc570…c2a0backed Yes14c7,006$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe57f…795ebacked Yes8c6,975$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…c76dbacked Yes13c6,907$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…1c0dbacked Yes1c6,734$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No77c6,491$4,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.928440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes2c6,430$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…9fd6backed Yes11c6,359$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes13c6,249$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.17540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+319.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No73c6,237$4,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.153357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3581…7427backed Yes5c6,200$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes33c6,077$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.533234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No77c6,041$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.252634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No77c6,000$4,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.99366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes6c5,750$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.2580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c5,700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.617921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No79c5,699$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.847420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed No69c5,630$3,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8af8…e723backed Yes7c5,605$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes18c5,555$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.5323225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c5,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7516616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.