World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f75f0ebdcde8371e64cb1462ad7e893aff45003415986d02c29d823132aebd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $579,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $514,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 0c | 73,675$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae8…1eecbacked Yes | 5c | 48,950$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +288.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 2c | 34,002$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 3c | 15,611$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.77 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 2c | 12,600$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 11,191$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…9109backed Yes | 1c | 9,843$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 9,555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 2c | 9,195$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.83 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,751$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 2c | 7,203$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 7,071$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…7546backed Yes | 4c | 4,614$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 1c | 4,430$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,296$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb83…306fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,267$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 2,232$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,218$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,017$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…6490backed Yes | 1c | 1,453$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a64…efd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,319$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…8461backed Yes | 2c | 1,216$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 5c | 1,134$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +284.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,007$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 3c | 979.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…c5f0backed Yes | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 3c | 704$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cb…85cabacked Yes | 2c | 649.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 4c | 646.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 79c | 503.51$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…b067backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 4c | 459.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…fa35backed Yes | 9c | 364.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 5c | 258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…e77bbacked Yes | 4c | 227.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 159.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 26c | 110.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 70c | 45.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.