World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d0139c21a36eaf6aacda9ccac75f58a45a9f2209b336351bebcce4ab11b3b03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,321,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,571,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,321,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85c…42dabacked Yes | 11c | 137,938$15,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,594.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 19c | 94,995$18,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,116.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 12c | 64,151$7,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,736.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…3676backed Yes | 11c | 52,900$5,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,826.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…b77abacked Yes | 15c | 27,791$4,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 9c | 17,143$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 15,650$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 13,060$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.68 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed No | 80c | 10,000$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…7346backed Yes | 6c | 8,590$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 12c | 8,366$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…46cfbacked No | 79c | 7,000$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 8c | 6,149$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.16 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,850$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 11c | 5,500$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd8…ebcbbacked Yes | 15c | 5,478$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…fd27backed Yes | 13c | 5,267$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…5df4backed Yes | 20c | 5,064$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…b19ebacked Yes | 10c | 5,048$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 19c | 5,008$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.95 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 3c | 4,848$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…c34fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,432$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,355$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…29b7backed Yes | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 77c | 4,246$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 10c | 4,186$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 3,908$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…1dc3backed Yes | 8c | 3,833$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…4cd1backed Yes | 14c | 3,539$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fff…9d61backed Yes | 1c | 3,532$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334e…93c3backed Yes | 12c | 3,387$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…6fc1backed Yes | 16c | 3,192$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 23c | 3,086$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.36 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…242abacked Yes | 8c | 2,837$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed Yes | 5c | 2,737$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…d708backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Yes | 13c | 2,493$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…e00bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,441$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 5c | 2,278$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 12c | 2,245$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.38 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 8c | 2,200$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…a93ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,131$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43db…9871backed Yes | 5c | 2,046$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 2,005$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 10c | 2,001$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,983$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,965$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 13c | 1,961$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,901$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 10c | 1,900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,821$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656f…5f17backed Yes | 8c | 1,781$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…5e85backed Yes | 2c | 1,689$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…4e44backed Yes | 12c | 1,635$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,626$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.53 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…4673backed Yes | 13c | 1,619$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,601$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes | 11c | 1,591$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes | 13c | 1,507$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48f…623abacked Yes | 8c | 1,455$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…851fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,311$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 1,311$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,299$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,290$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…479cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,280$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,266$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 12c | 1,263$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…8001backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…4f10backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef8…6e55backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf30…a746backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…171ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011e…c658backed Yes | 17c | 1,129$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…9becbacked Yes | 12c | 1,112$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…3743backed Yes | 18c | 1,058$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…1f11backed Yes | 11c | 1,045$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…f8a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…3a30backed Yes | 7c | 990$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 10c | 958.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…8976backed Yes | 14c | 925.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 910$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 11c | 872.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out in 2025?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.