TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,321,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,571,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,321,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe85c…42dabacked Yes11c137,938$15,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,594.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes19c94,995$18,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,116.091931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes12c64,151$7,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,736.9280%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a16…3676backed Yes11c52,900$5,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,826.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf23d…b77abacked Yes15c27,791$4,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,190.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes9c17,143$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.081315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes5c15,650$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.211612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c13,060$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.6818216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76bd…f258backed No80c10,000$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes6c8,590$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.361136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf84…703cbacked Yes12c8,366$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d1…46cfbacked No79c7,000$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes8c6,149$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.165437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes13c5,850$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.031330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes11c5,500$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefd8…ebcbbacked Yes15c5,478$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2522…fd27backed Yes13c5,267$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.481338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd78…5df4backed Yes20c5,064$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6b…b19ebacked Yes10c5,048$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes19c5,008$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.952611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes3c4,848$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f4…c34fbacked Yes13c4,432$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes11c4,355$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf52…29b7backed Yes7c4,286$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+49.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No77c4,246$3,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.221338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Yes10c4,186$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-70.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c3,908$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.945315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542f…1dc3backed Yes8c3,833$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x736f…4cd1backed Yes14c3,539$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fff…9d61backed Yes1c3,532$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334e…93c3backed Yes12c3,387$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4629…6fc1backed Yes16c3,192$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes23c3,086$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.367254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae1…242abacked Yes8c2,837$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e2…9629backed Yes5c2,737$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.921625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd972…d708backed Yes22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed Yes13c2,493$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.14633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b7…e00bbacked Yes8c2,441$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes5c2,278$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes12c2,245$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.382330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes8c2,200$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+246.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ee7…a93ebacked Yes5c2,131$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43db…9871backed Yes5c2,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes9c2,005$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7215026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x398c…2172backed Yes10c2,001$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf2…45c5backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes9c2,000$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1778123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes16c1,983$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.441225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes15c1,965$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…60f2backed Yes13c1,961$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-61.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes11c1,901$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes10c1,900$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1985437%20 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes10c1,821$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.88560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+125%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x656f…5f17backed Yes8c1,781$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ac…5e85backed Yes2c1,689$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb311…4e44backed Yes12c1,635$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes16c1,626$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.537919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989f…4673backed Yes13c1,619$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,606$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c1,601$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.171344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes11c1,591$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,566$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.532117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c1,533$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.516883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes13c1,507$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+108.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26311.1%7 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+117.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa48f…623abacked Yes8c1,455$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c91…851fbacked Yes7c1,428$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes10c1,311$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.212339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes7c1,311$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.776622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c1,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c1,299$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.47229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+79.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c1,290$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.724766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d8…479cbacked Yes13c1,280$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes18c1,266$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.552123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5f…1912backed Yes12c1,263$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6310…0d90backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b6…8001backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b9…4f10backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef8…6e55backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf30…a746backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…171ebacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c1,210$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x011e…c658backed Yes17c1,129$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe81c…9becbacked Yes12c1,112$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes18c1,100$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.42927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775c…3743backed Yes18c1,058$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e8…1f11backed Yes11c1,045$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56d…82e7backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x147c…efd6backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d88…f8a1backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes9c999.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d6…af98backed Yes18c999.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+57.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…3a30backed Yes7c990$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes10c958.22$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.645121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa561…8976backed Yes14c925.66$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes1c910$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.671323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+246.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bf9…f593backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes11c872.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.