TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,036,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,871,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,036,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf472…a262backed Yes5c205,757$10,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,615.39140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes4c158,558$6,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,624.38100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes8c105,098$8,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,427.41616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07b…c963backed Yes4c62,526$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,622.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes4c54,650$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.121020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes3c52,802$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.07147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a2…fda0backed Yes4c51,071$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Yes10c41,387$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed1…53febacked Yes6c35,506$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.47933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes5c34,711$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.06520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f0…71edbacked Yes7c32,383$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ad…e4d0backed Yes6c30,196$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes5c26,899$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.041931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c26,416$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.8345723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Yes6c25,359$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.381361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes6c25,100$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d79…8e3bbacked Yes5c20,439$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes4c20,062$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes5c19,496$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.722010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c17,851$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.372416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes3c16,994$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick25cpaid+93.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x935d…08ffbacked Yes1c15,811$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.923339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa04…66e7backed Yes3c15,515$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick24cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes2c14,567$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes4c14,274$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.044940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes1c13,939$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.862030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes4c13,638$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.94850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes3c13,541$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.7170%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93e…b8fdbacked Yes5c12,831$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes4c12,109$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.68641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c12,100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.64440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a6…06f9backed Yes4c11,364$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes4c10,400$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.62564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66e2…f317backed Yes5c10,385$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes5c9,601$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.385437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7f…afaebacked Yes4c9,508$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f4…ed7bbacked Yes1c9,278$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes10c8,744$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf4…6122backed Yes0c8,517$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes3c8,495$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.35313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes1c8,492$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.98825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8915…4821backed Yes2c8,267$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f1…319bbacked Yes6c8,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc165…8e10backed Yes4c7,856$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…3a30backed Yes7c7,800$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes3c7,679$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.431612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0f…a7e4backed Yes4c6,816$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed Yes4c6,800$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a5…4dd9backed Yes5c6,721$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a7…60fcbacked Yes5c6,664$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059e…4225backed Yes10c6,600$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f34…c0c4backed Yes2c6,454$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2348…c246backed Yes5c6,129$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ed…9a97backed Yes7c5,800$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.391030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1039…4153backed Yes5c5,746$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes7c5,736$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.472744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x605a…0461backed Yes5c5,636$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9baa…e295backed Yes2c5,586$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…d4dabacked Yes6c5,400$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7984…f4f6backed Yes5c5,335$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.91955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0aa…f987backed Yes4c5,310$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes2c5,139$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes7c5,118$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+47.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c5,112$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.786219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes4c5,054$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.637123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04e3…5ac5backed Yes6c5,054$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+149.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3590…2a4ebacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac8…1588backed Yes5c4,758$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0e…05a4backed Yes6c4,548$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c8…efb4backed Yes2c4,545$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes4c4,538$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.134355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes5c4,530$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.111822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe925…bb3abacked Yes6c4,525$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ab…e154backed Yes2c4,465$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3997…e141backed Yes9c4,429$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e14…82a5backed Yes5c4,418$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedda…d508backed Yes2c4,383$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aaa…3144backed Yes11c4,355$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932c…e917backed Yes4c4,352$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a00…bcf0backed Yes4c4,276$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de8…2ad7backed Yes8c4,238$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd9…7a57backed Yes7c4,228$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b6…03f2backed Yes6c4,191$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88fe…5718backed Yes5c4,158$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2d…e36ebacked Yes5c4,081$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes7c4,031$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.346741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38bb…e3e8backed Yes2c4,026$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa71d…bb94backed Yes3c3,935$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x895a…affcbacked Yes8c3,911$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…242cbacked Yes3c3,908$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e2…6761backed Yes1c3,880$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3828…718fbacked Yes5c3,867$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-56.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf403…d80bbacked Yes9c3,809$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fb…51d8backed Yes6c3,784$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2990…8f9fbacked Yes5c3,726$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dac…8e8cbacked Yes8c3,716$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558a…0c35backed Yes6c3,612$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes0c3,590$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46372.7%1 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f89…f715backed Yes2c3,589$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cca…65cabacked Yes5c3,478$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.