TailMyPicks
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,573,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,574,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,573,744 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,072 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03c1…3e98backed No1c57,228$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes79c53,663$42,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,234.1611853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No10c52,727$5,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,238.1313918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd760…f7f5backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efb…f02cbacked No0c39,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No24c32,177$7,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,656.74120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c31,300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f27…7a85backed No0c25,505$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes77c22,839$17,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,361.965244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes75c21,131$15,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,205.552638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No23c19,093$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.021020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8495…40a8backed No0c18,320$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes51c17,736$9,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,645.866150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes68c17,506$11,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,688.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked No5c16,849$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No3c16,572$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.134450%22 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No20c15,723$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.44355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd849…6ac7backed No78c15,463$12,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,063.58366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes50c13,332$6,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,721.275740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9f…1775backed No2c12,936$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes58c12,723$7,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,376.848451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…d6e2backed No41c12,255$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa608…1b35backed Yes65c11,879$7,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,194.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes63c11,548$7,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,324.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No76c11,531$8,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,797.587451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes20c11,492$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,167.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick29cpaid+140.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a64…1eaabacked No0c10,880$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2598…40a3backed Yes24c10,627$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,118.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+153.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x097c…7c8dbacked No0c10,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes76c10,477$7,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35b1…8962backed Yes72c10,178$7,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,806.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adf…4f5bbacked No29c10,000$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,890.69425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes76c9,791$7,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.946622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No22c9,335$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.3211039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7836…9a32backed No3c9,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No40c8,254$3,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,295.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No19c8,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes20c8,000$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,359.814032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No57c7,428$4,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,197.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No39c7,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No31c6,851$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.1817330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed No29c6,792$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No8c6,737$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.7714126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c38…e679backed No26c6,721$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…be32backed No33c6,634$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes67c6,600$4,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.312056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes19c6,397$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,183.213023.3%7 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes62c6,302$3,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.813531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes54c6,186$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,832.962030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0e…e64bbacked No47c6,144$2,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc18b…6834backed No0c6,013$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes47c6,001$2,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.3415932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc59…cd31backed No23c6,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d2…7c9ebacked No23c5,730$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a1…3c87backed No75c5,700$4,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,291.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No56c5,366$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.311127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2dd…e1b2backed Yes79c5,350$4,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed No31c5,287$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.021855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3068…083dbacked No12c5,214$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.461560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44f…41a1backed No17c5,152$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed No33c4,851$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6002035%7 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No4c4,800$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1961330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fd…83b5backed No28c4,698$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes14c4,543$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes15c4,507$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.461020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes77c4,295$3,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.15771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes67c4,204$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b50…6a77backed No2c4,108$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes75c4,000$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.73043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes80c4,000$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.973100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked Yes69c3,769$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.211471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes40c3,644$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.571435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8f…4dc1backed No80c3,639$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed No1c3,540$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.93125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes72c3,538$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.198641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade3…3b44backed No1c3,198$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes63c3,153$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.491866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c3,100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.44440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No26c3,092$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.915234.6%18 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes25c3,081$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.387123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb8e…183abacked No17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55f…4f15backed No25c2,985$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed No17c2,971$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.73128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-89.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes40c2,854$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…e3a0backed No2c2,734$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes38c2,716$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.6626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed No19c2,686$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.01140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…a061backed No7c2,577$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x174b…5a55backed No35c2,567$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed No31c2,522$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf422…baa9backed No28c2,511$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d22…df92backed Yes80c2,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4507650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No25c2,451$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.910038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes79c2,419$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.042653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No26c2,409$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.282123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes69c2,400$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501090%9 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick72cpaid+26.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes42c2,400$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.8312029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes68c2,343$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.