TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,725,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,377,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,725,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes10c226,446$22,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,846.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes3c224,112$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes17c180,117$30,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,731.38616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes20c122,326$24,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,312.462142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes5c85,837$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.0215932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes9c71,751$6,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,773.78100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes10c70,639$7,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,201.2690%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes14c57,791$8,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,353.06147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes28c54,215$15,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,395.263432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes23c53,684$12,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,585.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No72c51,590$36,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,603.853528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes10c46,202$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,574.396622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes11c43,174$4,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,566.563943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes4c41,434$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.265149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes5c40,338$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.65425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes29c40,254$11,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,518.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+335.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc26…4b92backed Yes10c38,343$3,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.041526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+635.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes4c38,224$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.125330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes5c37,845$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.31825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6775…a6b6backed Yes3c37,235$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes8c36,450$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,817.92416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes6c30,834$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.23417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes16c25,479$4,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,196.73520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes8c25,000$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+154.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x696a…1afebacked Yes1c24,042$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes11c22,936$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes15c22,419$3,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,303.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No75c22,397$16,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,588.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes9c22,301$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.821020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes8c22,161$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.014355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed Yes0c21,976$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes20c21,720$4,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.536219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes4c21,633$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.5713918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Yes8c21,267$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.521428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes10c20,964$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.762564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ed1…53febacked Yes5c20,886$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.02933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…c4febacked Yes4c19,222$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.36728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+145.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed No71c18,888$13,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,477.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes10c18,784$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c0…c403backed Yes7c18,607$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbd…ceeabacked No76c18,386$14,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes9c18,263$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.33219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes15c17,599$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dd…a04ebacked No78c17,560$13,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+125.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes4c16,019$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.4312630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No79c15,539$12,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,340.413444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ebf…2459backed Yes33c14,799$4,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,833.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes9c14,709$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.981020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes14c14,636$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.63737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed Yes35c14,500$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes17c14,019$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,416.583551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2aa…b3cfbacked Yes4c13,876$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes15c13,591$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes5c13,231$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa970…fd1cbacked Yes3c12,874$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes5c12,452$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1411039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes24c12,312$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9864231%13 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed No77c12,028$9,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,809.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes5c11,833$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.444511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f0…71edbacked Yes19c11,603$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75fd…b217backed Yes4c11,555$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbf…16a5backed Yes2c11,494$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes14c11,166$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.987123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44b6…03f2backed Yes6c11,068$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes22c11,000$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.32638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed Yes11c10,904$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes5c10,903$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52814126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb63…f6a4backed Yes5c10,325$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…d4dabacked Yes12c10,186$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.5760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes3c10,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe639…082abacked No77c10,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes4c10,000$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.864940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2348…c246backed Yes18c10,000$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de7…a9c8backed No65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5002100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+208.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes6c10,000$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c9,895$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.824440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes11c9,844$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes4c9,627$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.681346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ed…0ce8backed Yes3c9,541$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes14c9,304$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.7215650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83b…3714backed Yes20c9,215$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91e…ec6bbacked Yes7c9,151$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes3c8,708$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.471931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed No78c8,650$6,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.88540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes14c8,450$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No70c8,164$5,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.887225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked No68c8,050$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.591266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes8c7,920$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9297…7fe9backed Yes22c7,860$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes7c7,680$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.942114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…8366backed Yes9c7,556$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes14c7,431$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.74140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7b…5485backed Yes14c7,308$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.512740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes6c7,201$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.971020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes5c7,121$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.381442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes21c7,107$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.9643243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes6c6,747$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a5…4dd9backed Yes25c6,671$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c6,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3817921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes0c6,477$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.