World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x575e86314d77231f25c16834b4f501221f215399a79fa6f5760b0a1eb7f1e5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,725,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,377,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,725,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 10c | 226,446$22,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,846.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 3c | 224,112$5,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,721.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 17c | 180,117$30,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,731.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 20c | 122,326$24,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,312.46 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 5c | 85,837$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,917.02 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 9c | 71,751$6,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,773.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 10c | 70,639$7,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,201.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 14c | 57,791$8,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,353.06 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 28c | 54,215$15,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,395.26 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 23c | 53,684$12,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,585.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 72c | 51,590$36,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,603.85 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 46,202$4,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,574.39 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 11c | 43,174$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,566.56 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 4c | 41,434$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.26 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 5c | 40,338$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 29c | 40,254$11,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,518.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +335.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…4b92backed Yes | 10c | 38,343$3,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +635.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 4c | 38,224$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.12 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes | 5c | 37,845$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…a6b6backed Yes | 3c | 37,235$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 8c | 36,450$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.9 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 30,834$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.2 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 16c | 25,479$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 8c | 25,000$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…1afebacked Yes | 1c | 24,042$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 22,936$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 15c | 22,419$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,303.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 75c | 22,397$16,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,588.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes | 9c | 22,301$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 8c | 22,161$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.01 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 0c | 21,976$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 20c | 21,720$4,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.53 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 21,633$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.57 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 8c | 21,267$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 10c | 20,964$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.76 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed1…53febacked Yes | 5c | 20,886$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…c4febacked Yes | 4c | 19,222$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed No | 71c | 18,888$13,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,477.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 10c | 18,784$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…c403backed Yes | 7c | 18,607$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked No | 76c | 18,386$14,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,382.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed Yes | 9c | 18,263$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.33 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 15c | 17,599$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked No | 78c | 17,560$13,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,789.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 4c | 16,019$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.43 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 79c | 15,539$12,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,340.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 33c | 14,799$4,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,833.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 9c | 14,709$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 14c | 14,636$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.6 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 35c | 14,500$5,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,053.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 17c | 14,019$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.58 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…b3cfbacked Yes | 4c | 13,876$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 15c | 13,591$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…5418backed Yes | 5c | 13,231$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…fd1cbacked Yes | 3c | 12,874$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 5c | 12,452$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.14 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 24c | 12,312$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,986 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed No | 77c | 12,028$9,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 5c | 11,833$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.44 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…71edbacked Yes | 19c | 11,603$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…b217backed Yes | 4c | 11,555$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…16a5backed Yes | 2c | 11,494$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 11,166$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.98 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…03f2backed Yes | 6c | 11,068$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 22c | 11,000$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 11c | 10,904$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 5c | 10,903$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…f6a4backed Yes | 5c | 10,325$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…d4dabacked Yes | 12c | 10,186$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked No | 77c | 10,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.86 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…c246backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed No | 65c | 10,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +208.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,895$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.82 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 11c | 9,844$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 4c | 9,627$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed Yes | 3c | 9,541$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 14c | 9,304$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.72 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…3714backed Yes | 20c | 9,215$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…ec6bbacked Yes | 7c | 9,151$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 3c | 8,708$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 78c | 8,650$6,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 14c | 8,450$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 70c | 8,164$5,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.88 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…93fdbacked No | 68c | 8,050$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 8c | 7,920$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…7fe9backed Yes | 22c | 7,860$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 7c | 7,680$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.94 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…8366backed Yes | 9c | 7,556$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 14c | 7,431$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.74 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed Yes | 14c | 7,308$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 6c | 7,201$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,121$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 21c | 7,107$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.96 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 6c | 6,747$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…4dd9backed Yes | 25c | 6,671$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 0c | 6,477$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.