World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by June 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c669ac8597169d6f63dfd58b0bae429c02276c33e075a9692abe77ff5fbb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 13c | 3,887$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 18c | 3,692$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 12c | 2,139$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 77c | 950$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 12c | 884.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 74c | 810.24$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked No | 30c | 661.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 578.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 16c | 560.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 356.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 15c | 258.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…b675backed No | 9c | 255.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 8c | 199.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No | 13c | 160.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 10c | 143.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 16c | 130.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…aaeabacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 23c | 51.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed Yes | 77c | 42.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…99c4backed Yes | 79c | 39.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…9cfabacked Yes | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.