TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,558,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,605,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,558,842 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,880 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No31c143,801$43,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,877.47100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf574…5e3ebacked No30c95,286$28,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,585.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes67c89,073$59,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,253.725536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes69c54,121$37,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,666.023551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes72c54,038$38,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,076.0313918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No33c43,397$14,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,224.023828.9%11 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked Yes78c42,112$33,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,086.262528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No13c40,545$5,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,420.5360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No21c38,333$8,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,096.041442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce61…9381backed No38c34,315$13,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,093.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed No1c33,333$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No20c31,668$6,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,312.814231%13 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No11c30,754$3,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,426.526219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No30c29,738$8,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,820.857451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes59c28,194$16,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,420.375330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No13c26,694$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,378.345335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes75c26,245$19,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,519.485313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe648…fb2ebacked No43c25,923$11,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,161.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x428c…880fbacked Yes70c24,450$17,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes65c23,688$15,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,194.461931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba97…b4cfbacked Yes70c23,149$16,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,944.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes67c23,129$15,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,560.62580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63ae…6193backed Yes70c23,086$16,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,925.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked No16c22,026$3,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,481.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No23c21,944$5,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,134.773043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes72c21,448$15,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,994.49875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf66d…bc0cbacked Yes70c21,240$14,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb749…2a64backed No30c21,127$6,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,283.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-84%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No37c21,036$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7002138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No44c20,034$8,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,853.83944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+163.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No24c19,909$4,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8745121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes69c19,679$13,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,008.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes68c19,020$13,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,016.686523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No34c18,697$6,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,327.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes71c18,373$13,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,297.03933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes74c18,354$13,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800.083444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes68c17,750$12,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,636.178641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32c…e86bbacked No25c16,259$4,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,128.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes69c15,553$10,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.522544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes66c15,421$10,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,182.895437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No13c15,003$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.44526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes69c14,617$10,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,485.555244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes63c14,122$8,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,262.042152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No36c13,919$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.811154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No44c12,577$5,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5531353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5554…b17ebacked No39c12,174$4,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,740.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No26c12,041$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,177.2211039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No20c11,843$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.3215230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed No38c11,764$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.7990%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No17c11,657$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes74c11,257$8,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.413132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes80c11,047$8,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c01…3ffebacked No37c11,000$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No35c10,981$3,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,806.57933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes76c10,899$8,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.043444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed No40c10,258$4,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,127.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes75c10,236$7,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.056633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No20c10,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9502944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adf…4f5bbacked No8c10,000$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.99425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No37c10,000$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,659.994032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a6…ebddbacked No13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afe…af69backed Yes71c10,000$7,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed No33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.983525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bcd…28a1backed No34c9,984$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…5f5ebacked Yes72c9,913$7,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e4…1cedbacked No30c9,861$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed No18c9,841$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d12…6be5backed Yes70c9,753$6,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes57c9,694$5,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed No20c9,682$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.483125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa181…ece8backed Yes69c9,662$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes75c9,542$7,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.992352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c9,481$7,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,123.6754934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No1c9,444$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No17c9,245$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.4560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd4…6be6backed No19c9,228$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No14c8,611$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.162123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7b…5485backed No30c8,458$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.82740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes69c8,234$5,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.62825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed No33c8,104$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c70…9b0dbacked No13c8,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No36c7,928$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.034334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes68c7,895$5,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.295521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes76c7,879$6,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.483135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No19c7,878$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick50cpaid-85.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0da9…b527backed Yes80c7,818$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No21c7,795$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes53c7,781$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,680.043339.4%13 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes73c7,600$5,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No25c7,510$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.642638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No28c7,500$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0751346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No20c7,046$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.27834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No16c6,900$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes71c6,800$4,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.991275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+210.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8953…9b78backed No27c6,340$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c6,273$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.121344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed No12c6,232$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.521533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No16c6,190$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70df…9803backed Yes74c6,000$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.