TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,912,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,142,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,912,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,003 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x643c…3fc2backed No3c156,340$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,730.061926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid+17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes28c127,976$35,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,623.7313918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c106,947$75,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,384.4254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c49…a8fcbacked Yes45c90,100$40,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,5551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eda…cc4dbacked No55c90,100$49,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,55510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No56c86,334$47,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,950.037451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes24c83,363$20,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,102.7715932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50da…2202backed No74c81,307$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No63c78,533$49,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,571.853528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd21f…e03fbacked No56c73,385$40,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,768.02425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26a5…06c0backed No63c64,703$40,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,650.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes31c57,188$17,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,687.538641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f17…519ebacked No73c52,647$38,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,320.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes76c51,771$39,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,609.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…9e4dbacked No77c50,047$38,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,782.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes38c49,796$18,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,015.021931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked Yes27c47,398$12,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,738.282528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes39c46,944$18,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,449.95330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No67c45,228$30,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,493.65100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes31c44,804$13,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,914.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6a…0b8cbacked No73c41,714$30,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,617.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes71c41,468$29,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,196.455521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No13c41,395$5,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,362.732030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x850d…aae1backed Yes40c41,146$16,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,828.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes38c38,807$14,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,925.542564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No32c35,213$11,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,354.2317330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes62c33,264$20,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,507.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No63c32,627$20,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,672.36944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+163.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes56c32,099$18,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,041.882638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No47c31,427$14,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,926.723357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes53c30,690$16,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,370.473551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd9…8d0dbacked No39c29,627$11,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,554.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No60c29,474$17,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,627.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes62c28,918$17,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,038.061442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No65c28,679$18,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,672.518047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No61c28,302$17,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,327.361723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes37c28,182$10,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,862.915740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes64c27,241$17,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,838.625536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed No58c26,649$15,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,369.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick59cpaid-47.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No65c25,362$16,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,583.592138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cab…f7c2backed Yes24c25,345$6,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,257.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+213.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x384f…58adbacked No48c25,086$12,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,070580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+209%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb749…2a64backed No53c24,951$13,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,334.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-84%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes41c24,877$10,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,603.613135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes26c24,824$6,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,302.494334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No11c24,381$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.94120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes38c24,252$9,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,996.61650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+138.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes16c23,808$3,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,950.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+154.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed No75c23,712$17,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,893.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes21c23,557$4,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,595.712748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No66c23,129$15,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,209.911464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa9…846cbacked Yes74c22,702$16,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,855.773100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes61c21,488$13,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,464.42425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da9…b527backed Yes48c21,290$10,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,013.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes29c21,256$6,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,094.6126139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bef…d6e2backed No16c21,182$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes59c21,059$12,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,707.826150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed No73c21,009$15,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,320.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x095d…52cfbacked No63c20,799$13,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,038.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick69cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c48…3299backed No11c20,700$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes36c20,098$7,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,909.44875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12b8…479cbacked Yes11c20,018$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,816.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+237.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed No63c20,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,500850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No63c19,900$12,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,629.7648224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No63c19,387$12,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,174.386950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a3…7e5cbacked Yes46c19,193$8,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,315.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes73c18,688$13,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.61580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked No54c18,456$9,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,979.131631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No59c18,208$10,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,685.054334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes42c18,073$7,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,428.575437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb89…a2e8backed No79c18,037$14,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,261.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed No19c17,947$3,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,329.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes43c17,768$7,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,045.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No63c17,707$11,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,216.311650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes37c17,645$6,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,062.955058%29 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb24c…eefebacked No74c17,425$12,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,937.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes39c17,355$6,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,510.584348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes69c17,007$11,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,293.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick29cpaid+140.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes23c16,900$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,072.754032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes31c16,671$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,496.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes34c15,934$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,532.87977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+45%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1964…38ffbacked Yes61c15,750$9,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,142.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c15,702$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.634440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae8…1eecbacked Yes13c15,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,532.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+288.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No65c15,409$10,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,083.962650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes44c15,293$6,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,501.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes35c15,279$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,969.068456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes40c14,704$5,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,862.844940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes55c14,574$7,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,605.024355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes63c14,530$9,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,425.857129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes48c14,250$6,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,448.442653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+105.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes59c14,201$8,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,783.636622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa473…87febacked Yes61c13,877$8,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,412.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3328…e6b8backed Yes40c13,831$5,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,298.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d4…8dd6backed Yes34c13,450$4,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No43c13,260$5,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,753.355121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No62c13,149$8,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,102.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c12,977$8,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,010.9788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9965…c703backed No60c12,756$7,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,716.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No35c12,620$4,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,416.711039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.