World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,912,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,142,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,912,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,003 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 3c | 156,340$4,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,730.06 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 28c | 127,976$35,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,623.73 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 106,947$75,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,384.42 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…a8fcbacked Yes | 45c | 90,100$40,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,555 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eda…cc4dbacked No | 55c | 90,100$49,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,555 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 56c | 86,334$47,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,950.03 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 24c | 83,363$20,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,102.77 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…2202backed No | 74c | 81,307$60,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 63c | 78,533$49,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,571.85 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21f…e03fbacked No | 56c | 73,385$40,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,768.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…06c0backed No | 63c | 64,703$40,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,650.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 31c | 57,188$17,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,687.53 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 73c | 52,647$38,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,320.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 76c | 51,771$39,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,609.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…9e4dbacked No | 77c | 50,047$38,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,782.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 38c | 49,796$18,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,015.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…83bcbacked Yes | 27c | 47,398$12,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,738.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 39c | 46,944$18,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,449.9 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 67c | 45,228$30,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,493.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 31c | 44,804$13,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,914.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…0b8cbacked No | 73c | 41,714$30,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,617.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 71c | 41,468$29,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,196.45 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 13c | 41,395$5,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…aae1backed Yes | 40c | 41,146$16,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,828.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 38c | 38,807$14,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,925.54 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 32c | 35,213$11,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,354.23 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 62c | 33,264$20,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,507.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 63c | 32,627$20,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,672.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 56c | 32,099$18,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,041.88 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 47c | 31,427$14,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,926.72 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 53c | 30,690$16,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,370.47 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd9…8d0dbacked No | 39c | 29,627$11,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,554.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 60c | 29,474$17,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,627.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 62c | 28,918$17,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,038.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 65c | 28,679$18,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,672.51 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 61c | 28,302$17,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,327.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 37c | 28,182$10,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,862.91 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 64c | 27,241$17,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,838.62 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 58c | 26,649$15,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,369.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 65c | 25,362$16,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,583.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f7c2backed Yes | 24c | 25,345$6,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,257.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +213.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked No | 48c | 25,086$12,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,070 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +209%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb749…2a64backed No | 53c | 24,951$13,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,334.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked Yes | 41c | 24,877$10,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,603.61 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 26c | 24,824$6,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,302.49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 11c | 24,381$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.94 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 38c | 24,252$9,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,996.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 16c | 23,808$3,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,950.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed No | 75c | 23,712$17,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,893.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 21c | 23,557$4,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,595.71 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 66c | 23,129$15,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,209.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…846cbacked Yes | 74c | 22,702$16,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,855.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 61c | 21,488$13,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,464.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…b527backed Yes | 48c | 21,290$10,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,013.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 21,256$6,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,094.61 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…d6e2backed No | 16c | 21,182$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 59c | 21,059$12,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,707.82 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 73c | 21,009$15,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,320.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…52cfbacked No | 63c | 20,799$13,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,038.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…3299backed No | 11c | 20,700$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 36c | 20,098$7,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,909.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 11c | 20,018$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,816.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 63c | 20,000$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 63c | 19,900$12,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,629.76 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 63c | 19,387$12,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,174.38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…7e5cbacked Yes | 46c | 19,193$8,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,315.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 73c | 18,688$13,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,019.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked No | 54c | 18,456$9,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,979.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 59c | 18,208$10,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,685.05 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 42c | 18,073$7,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,428.57 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…a2e8backed No | 79c | 18,037$14,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,261.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed No | 19c | 17,947$3,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes | 43c | 17,768$7,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,045.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 63c | 17,707$11,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,216.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 37c | 17,645$6,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,062.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked No | 74c | 17,425$12,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,937.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 39c | 17,355$6,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,510.58 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 69c | 17,007$11,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,293.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 29cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 23c | 16,900$3,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,072.75 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 31c | 16,671$5,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,496.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 34c | 15,934$5,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,532.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…38ffbacked Yes | 61c | 15,750$9,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,142.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 15,702$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae8…1eecbacked Yes | 13c | 15,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,532.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +288.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 65c | 15,409$10,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,083.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 44c | 15,293$6,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,501.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 35c | 15,279$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,969.06 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 40c | 14,704$5,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,862.84 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 55c | 14,574$7,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,605.02 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 63c | 14,530$9,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,425.85 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 48c | 14,250$6,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,448.44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 59c | 14,201$8,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,783.63 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa473…87febacked Yes | 61c | 13,877$8,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,412.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…e6b8backed Yes | 40c | 13,831$5,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,298.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…8dd6backed Yes | 34c | 13,450$4,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,877 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 43c | 13,260$5,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,753.35 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 62c | 13,149$8,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,102.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 12,977$8,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,010.97 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…c703backed No | 60c | 12,756$7,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,716.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 35c | 12,620$4,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,416.7 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.