TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x93a9…0b88

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
172
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Weather, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 53 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT5836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.69
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+167.3%+$215.54
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.37
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.52
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.41
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+119%+$35.96
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$510.1
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$81.93
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+101.1%+$17.6
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$409.59
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$38.63
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$25.15
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,921Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,920.64
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.71
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,380.43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$51,669Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51,669.23
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.65
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$4,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,029.72
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.64
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.54
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,204Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$554.1
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+69.9%+$278.83
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+67.7%+$482.77
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$737Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+130.6%+$962.14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$341.77
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+159.3%+$18.43
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.9
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$131.04
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.47
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$879Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$879.26
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+146.4%+$83.59
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+188.4%+$1,298.9
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$372.91
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.26
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.54
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.15
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$102.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+78.9%+$13.33
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$274.5
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.04
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,733Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$1,485.47
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$222.17
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$101.89
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$318.93
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$659Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.79
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.59
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$609.99
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$263
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,099Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$928.67
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$118.53
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,162Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+230.2%+$2,674.7
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,825Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,825
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$26.73
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.99
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$106
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$571.79
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$58.5
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+90.3%+$1,087.92
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,407Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$2,171.3
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+93.2%+$272.74
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$469Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$468.7
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.86
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.28
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.57
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$613.55
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$508.53
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+103.5%+$198.4
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$769Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$769.08
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$593.92
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.96
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.99
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,644Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,644.27
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+103.9%+$1,155.45
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockxbacked Luca Van Assche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$133.61
Set 2 Winner: Assche vs Blockxbacked Assche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.96
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Ferybacked Grigor Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.78
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$514Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$513.88
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverevbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,345.66
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverevbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Matteo Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$87.13
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Juan Manuel Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajdabacked Zachary Svajda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,490.22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$902.34
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.34
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,759Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,759.46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$6,929Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,928.94
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.93
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,051Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,050.59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,200.2
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,573Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,572.78
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,064Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$306.14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39%+$428.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerbacked ZEDI Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,640.31
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked ZEDI Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$72.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$67.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$22.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$214.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.