TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,365
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,365 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes10c2,311$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.447749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7980…feadbacked Yes11c1,559$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No71c1,506$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.3419643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f7d…aa8dbacked Yes11c1,500$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c1,486$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1313625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eca…ab82backed Yes13c1,467$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes11c1,268$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.963243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes19c1,096$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7822833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c1…cacebacked Yes11c1,053$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.76922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…b86fbacked Yes10c1,003$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes11c929.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.73258%2 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-83.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa696…1d24backed Yes11c859.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.39825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…0b45backed Yes12c769.75$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes22c724.02$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9611522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes19c650.61$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.31513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c588.02$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf992…ebb5backed Yes32c518$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…0179backed Yes11c502.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes34c500$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.735750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1925…b15dbacked Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes25c412.82$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9218126%47 W · 134 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a2…8796backed Yes32c400$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa6…a41cbacked Yes32c400$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No79c394.26$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.791560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes29c355.15$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.082339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No76c353$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1910739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2191…628ebacked Yes24c342.14$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.93850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No70c330$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.523036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8328…fe31backed Yes11c330$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes18c320.69$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.359819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes28c320$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.641435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes19c314.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2218310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes21c301.2$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5718041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes23c263.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes17c263$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4124861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes10c259.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.034729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b4…5353backed No68c255$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No80c249$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0212643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes28c225.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes13c215.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8219631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c203.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4833521.8%73 W · 262 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf847…ee6abacked No79c201.7$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+39.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a57…dc32backed Yes28c200.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.48234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.414019.3%27 W · 113 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes10c199.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.126311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f44…7470backed Yes14c180.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.142450%12 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes24c170$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.212440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed No70c167.12$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No65c166$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.67339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27da…d24abacked Yes11c163.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4770%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c163.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.113317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes28c154.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0770…4986backed Yes33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…525fbacked No76c143.46$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.574100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes24c126.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.695642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes29c110.73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.657437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c110.25$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3112150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0360%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No74c95.89$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.918757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x03b7…db35backed No78c95.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.281060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes18c90.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.676251.6%32 W · 30 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes24c84.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed No70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.26825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Yes27c77.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes24c76.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f75…550abacked Yes30c72.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes31c71.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.196744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes26c66.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.978741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d5…188fbacked No69c65.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.243363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes26c65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.056221%13 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06dd…f486backed No68c63$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No63c60.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5410048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…a7b9backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes28c57.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.191030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No78c54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.833026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No57c53.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.053834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…220bbacked Yes19c52.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1919…1e16backed Yes21c51.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes25c50.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aba…e2c6backed No65c50.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-69.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c6…f793backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84b…4f75backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4182backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c49.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2610946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No73c49.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1566914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c46.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7245035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No72c45.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8916020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No68c45.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.573860.5%23 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ab…cbc4backed Yes28c42.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes31c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.897447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes30c40.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47dd…3d3ebacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.