Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c128a0cba1a284ee5c41413da1caedbeb56eb7310e1cbaf50d9111142696781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445d…c8ffbacked Yes | 5c | 2,390$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4858…e007backed Yes | 5c | 2,112$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7e…b3d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,684$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087d…6c73backed Yes | 6c | 1,356$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…9c9abacked Yes | 6c | 1,171$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a89…911bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,101$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2939…bc0fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,101$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b6…6861backed Yes | 6c | 1,060$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…4e1cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,053$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…cf38backed Yes | 6c | 952$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…a194backed Yes | 6c | 935$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd99…c21ebacked Yes | 6c | 838$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…40c1backed Yes | 6c | 833$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…ada9backed Yes | 6c | 832$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…9060backed Yes | 6c | 830$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…c577backed Yes | 6c | 818$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 531.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…ee01backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 145.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Kurt Wedekind win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.