TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$347,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$349,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x149f…4a34backed Yes4c5,544$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf8…f4a2backed Yes4c4,908$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c7…9123backed Yes4c3,578$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7da…c16dbacked Yes4c3,432$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c14…6f74backed Yes4c3,148$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a1…736abacked Yes4c2,876$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0719…7925backed Yes5c2,815$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb8…281cbacked Yes4c2,786$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b8…370dbacked Yes4c2,549$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae6…6fefbacked Yes5c2,525$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235f…4310backed Yes4c2,498$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…ff4dbacked Yes5c2,342$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b97…4292backed Yes4c2,254$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a6…1cd6backed Yes4c2,074$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d76…9050backed Yes4c2,073$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4e…f86ebacked Yes5c1,952$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc891…faf5backed Yes5c1,926$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873b…6552backed Yes4c1,895$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5da…0635backed Yes4c1,891$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0f…3b2abacked Yes5c1,855$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5824…3217backed Yes4c1,849$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fae…7b03backed Yes5c1,835$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb30a…64ccbacked Yes5c1,800$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c7…7080backed Yes5c1,793$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79e0…14f4backed Yes4c1,783$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf331…5017backed Yes4c1,780$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…ac30backed Yes4c1,773$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af4…9575backed Yes5c1,733$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a46…9e10backed Yes4c1,728$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a22…9deabacked Yes4c1,660$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da6…08cebacked Yes5c1,652$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e3…3432backed Yes2c1,634$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7822…fe85backed Yes4c1,602$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d3…a152backed Yes5c1,583$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6b…087cbacked Yes5c1,578$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a5…fc3cbacked Yes4c1,571$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341c…b506backed Yes2c1,559$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c61…6e8ebacked Yes5c1,545$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf832…fef6backed Yes4c1,542$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x385f…b6d6backed Yes5c1,485$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e80…63ddbacked Yes2c1,451$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb7f…2a14backed Yes4c1,442$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1da…6592backed Yes5c1,415$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d59…4542backed Yes4c1,411$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1869…203bbacked Yes4c1,407$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaec…e829backed Yes5c1,356$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd78…4d1fbacked Yes5c1,336$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65e…b04bbacked Yes2c1,324$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce1…6dfdbacked Yes4c1,277$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62b…2838backed Yes5c1,267$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d76…ea83backed Yes5c1,255$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…77f8backed Yes4c1,216$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaba…c984backed Yes5c1,182$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…dfeebacked Yes5c1,152$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba0…1258backed Yes5c1,148$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299c…ef29backed Yes5c1,134$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3380…0338backed Yes5c1,120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8647…3e4dbacked Yes5c1,118$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b1…a596backed Yes5c1,102$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3d…1a10backed Yes5c1,039$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8d…9ac2backed Yes4c1,025$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e67…f256backed Yes5c1,010$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ae…beb4backed Yes5c977$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f3…af06backed Yes4c944$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c7…fd0ebacked Yes5c933$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa060…2e55backed Yes2c926$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb28…a899backed Yes5c890$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc425…5a0fbacked Yes3c887.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e26…bd63backed Yes5c866$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68fa…f95fbacked Yes5c860$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1786…a0a7backed Yes4c841$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5909…24debacked Yes5c841$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfd0…7858backed Yes4c837$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…2cb3backed Yes4c836$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94dd…8151backed Yes4c827$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…f772backed Yes4c810$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117e…8a98backed Yes5c805$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62f…4854backed Yes5c805$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a7…6502backed Yes5c798$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab29…f817backed Yes4c789$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf3…7b91backed Yes5c786$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc2…3e11backed Yes5c782$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06f…f952backed Yes4c767$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7993…2c78backed Yes5c759$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71b…0c30backed Yes4c754$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa947…09ebbacked Yes4c753$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ff…1976backed Yes5c751$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb3…e367backed Yes4c730$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c3…97cebacked Yes5c718$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ed…0ee0backed Yes4c717$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22a…06fbbacked Yes5c711$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02c…9eb3backed Yes5c686$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e5…c752backed Yes5c681$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f07…58c8backed Yes4c668$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe707…521cbacked Yes4c658$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c8…79e4backed Yes4c658$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c53…2217backed Yes5c645$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…f064backed Yes5c619$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8303…9eadbacked Yes5c616$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e49…0631backed Yes5c614$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.