Middle East · resolved market
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba34d786cd7bfbd719aa77c705f27969aba84d6649dca9adb365aad8c255db7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,009,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,140,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,009,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 656 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 1c | 1,519,692$8,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,124.97 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…9586backed No | 0c | 212,760$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0761…ad5cbacked No | 0c | 130,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked No | 1c | 85,750$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…1a7abacked No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…4fcfbacked No | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 5c | 57,581$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.24 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…49abbacked No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ce…f48bbacked No | 0c | 44,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 17c | 43,200$7,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,416 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…8854backed No | 0c | 39,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked No | 25c | 33,402$8,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,301.57 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 51c | 31,877$16,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,585.92 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 2c | 27,025$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.15 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed No | 25c | 26,935$6,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,801.49 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 80c | 24,477$19,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,943.51 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked No | 5c | 22,907$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed No | 10c | 21,882$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked No | 0c | 19,899$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 51c | 19,377$9,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,909.98 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 15c | 18,872$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.07 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 50c | 17,710$8,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,778.66 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed No | 16c | 16,175$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cc…42e6backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 43c | 14,665$6,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,259.14 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed No | 5c | 14,197$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…3d35backed No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac6…2d11backed No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 50c | 13,763$6,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,891.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…9867backed No | 0c | 13,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 12,762$8,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,669.8 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 26c | 12,171$3,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,988.61 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 67c | 12,141$8,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,006.51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 24c | 11,804$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.49 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 64c | 11,577$7,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,453.37 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…d66ebacked No | 68c | 10,992$7,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,501 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 35c | 10,441$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,785.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 25c | 10,304$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,775.76 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…099bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…6485backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…3007backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…0b70backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…23febacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…8333backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…2515backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…acefbacked Yes | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 24c | 9,482$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,163.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 25c | 7,839$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 13c | 7,316$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.09 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 13c | 7,101$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.47 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 24c | 6,964$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,297.39 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 65c | 6,924$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.28 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 60c | 6,659$4,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…d6a5backed No | 71c | 6,315$4,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,494.4 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…5460backed No | 2c | 6,277$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 21c | 6,094$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.46 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed No | 7c | 6,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.94 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…3e23backed No | 8c | 5,642$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 35c | 5,471$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.87 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 42c | 5,443$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.69 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 31c | 5,401$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.02 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 10c | 5,295$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.1 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 6c | 5,276$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.04 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked No | 1c | 5,197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 30c | 5,110$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,585.89 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 2c | 5,036$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 39c | 5,003$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.18 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 12c | 5,000$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 49c | 4,983$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.11 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed No | 5c | 4,943$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 15c | 4,854$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.62 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,658$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.69 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 4,629$3,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.63 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 3c | 4,520$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.85 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 34c | 4,503$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 53c | 4,498$2,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390.62 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…a90cbacked No | 5c | 4,484$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 28c | 4,457$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.51 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…5318backed No | 2c | 4,228$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 6c | 4,178$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…500cbacked No | 0c | 4,169$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 57c | 4,162$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 5c | 4,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…06fcbacked No | 17c | 3,962$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…5e9bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,873$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 3,421$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed No | 72c | 3,409$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,396$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.56 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…458abacked No | 63c | 3,170$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 76c | 3,124$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 53c | 3,112$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.03 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 31c | 3,093$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 67c | 3,081$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.59 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 28c | 3,054$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.97 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 67c | 2,931$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.23 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…4530backed Yes | 27c | 2,870$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 69c | 2,830$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.68 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?this page
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.